Rishi Sunak announces a General Election

Following a day of mounting speculation, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed yesterday that he was taking the country to the polls for the first summer election since 1945. Westminster circles were alerted by a series of movements from senior Cabinet members, such as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt cancelling his ITV appearance for later yesterday evening and Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron’s cancelling a trip to Albania. Initially there was speculation of a Cabinet reshuffle, or Hunt even standing down as Chancellor in a wholesale Government refresh. However, the worst fears of marginal Conservative MPs were confirmed by midday, when accredited journalists such as ITV’s Robert Peston started cautiously reporting that the Government planned to call an election.

In an age of social media and the prevalence of media leaks, some suggested that the Government did well to keep the General Election under wraps and away from the media for so long. However, after the unveiling of the infamous podium in front of 10 Downing Street, which has previously hosted impromptu political developments such as Liz Truss and Lord Cameron’s resignations as Prime Minister, everyone’s suspicions were confirmed.

The Government draw their battle lines

Sunak declared that now was the moment for Britain to ‘choose its future.’ In his speech, Sunak’s focus was almost presidential as he initially drew upon his first major political action when he was Chancellor: introducing the furlough scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic, emphasising his prior experience and decisiveness. Sunak argued that the Government is successfully taking action on the economy, pointing to the latest ONS figures which show inflation has declined to 2.3% – its lowest level in almost three years.

Sunak’s speech echoed his address at a Policy Exchange event last week, which drew on the same themes of rising global instability and the need for strong leadership on security issues. The same battle lines were drawn as Sunak warned that the UK faces increasing threat from ‘the axis of authoritarian states’ such as North Korea, Russia, Iran and China. He also spoke about the threat and opportunity posed by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.

Sunak accused Starmer of hypocrisy for serving under Jeremy Corbyn yet allowing former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke into his party. Moreover, he ridiculed Labour’s plans to ‘depress’ their way to victory as he noted Britain’s alleged inherent optimism. Meanwhile, consistent emphasis on the need to ‘stick with the plan’ against going back to square one made notions of message discipline look infantile.

Labour gearing up for a fight

Speaking shortly after the Prime Minister’s announcement, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told voters that the country’s future is in ‘your hands’, with the simple single-word slogan of ‘change’ written across his podium – a word he repeated several times throughout his short speech. Labour had a chance to refine their election offering at an event last week in Essex, where Starmer unveiled a Blair-style pledge card containing six ‘first steps’ for a Labour Government. The event featured short speeches from the Shadow Cabinet outlining Labour’s commitment to stabilise the economy, cut NHS waiting times, set up Great British Energy, crack down on antisocial behaviour, recruit 6,500 more teachers, and set up a new Border Security Command. During the event, some journalists put to Starmer that his ‘first steps’ seemed a watering down of his original five ‘missions’, launched back in early 2023. Starmer responded that his missions still stand, but the first steps are a ‘down payment’ on what Labour would do in its first 100 days of government. This move indicates that Starmer will be heading into this General Election with his characteristic caution, focusing on modest promises which are deliverable within the immediate future.

Meanwhile, Labour still has around 100 election candidates left to announce, and with just six weeks to go, the party will need to turbo-charge its selection process to get candidates out knocking on doors as soon as possible. Over the coming days, a few more sitting Labour MPs are expected to announce they will not be re-standing, meaning the party will have to find candidates for these seats as well, although this will likely be in Labour ‘safe seats’. The party’s top down selection of candidates, as well as the delay in selecting candidates for ‘non-battleground’ seats, has sparked anger from some Labour members.

The SNP manage expectations in their reaction

The General Election will not just be a top-level political battle between Sunak and Starmer, but also a vital junction for the UK’s smaller parties. North of the border, the election provides the first test for the SNP’s new leader, Scottish First Minister John Swinney. A veteran of the SNP, Swinney will have to draw on his wide ranging experience as his party faces a tough electoral challenge with recent polling suggesting they could lose as many as 37 seats. This perfectly illustrates the challenge facing the SNP with their 17 years of Government perhaps making them seem tired and old in the face of opposing parties. The contest in Scotland will provide a useful read into the prospects of the wider Labour party with their re-election hopes dependent on significant increases to their current MP count of 2 in Scotland.

The timings could not be worse for the SNP following the recent collapse of Hamza Yousaf’s leadership and the controversy of readmitting right winger Kate Forbes into the Cabinet. As mentioned prior, Swinney will not have to assert himself personally to the Scottish electorate given his varied and significant experience, however he will have to quickly create a coherent policy platform to take on opposing parties – this may be harder to navigate given recent internal turmoil within the party. Nonetheless, yesterday Swinney addressed the Scottish Parliament as he detailed that his main priority of Government was to eradicate child poverty.

In response to the initial announcement, Swinney interestingly argued that the timing was ‘unfair’ and ‘disrespectful’ with the date coming in the middle of Scottish school holidays. In a more detailed reaction today, Swinney took a measured and cautious approach, perhaps a reflection of the SNP’s fragility, as he stressed that he will ‘speak up for Scotland’ while also noting that he has reunited the SNP after a ‘tough time.’

Reform start their campaign but Farage is absent

The Conservatives’ fate at the upcoming General Election will also be contingent on the success of Reform UK. The party’s recent rise in the opinion polls illustrates the squeeze that the Conservatives face from the right of the political spectrum – this follows Reform nearly pushing the Conservatives into 3rd place in the Blackpool South by-election.

In response to the Conservatives’ announcement, Reform held a press conference this morning which had initially been signposted as a reaction to the ONS’ latest immigration data. In the press conference, Leader Richard Tice derided the high immigration as he also noted that the Conservatives cannot be trusted to cut immigration and that Labour seeks mass immigration. Reform’s focus on immigration and border security went beyond political opportunist semantics as Tice was placed in front of a banner titled ‘The Immigration Election’ as they clearly set their stall. Moreover, following this announcement, Tice detailed that he would stand for election in the constituency of Boston and Skegness as he hopes to become Reform’s second MP following Lee Anderson. Interestingly, YouGov later revealed that according to their latest MRP poll, Reform were polling at 25% in the constituency, only 11 points behind the Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Reform’s hopes may be impeded by Nigel Farage’s announcement that he would not stand at the upcoming general election but instead focus his efforts on the US Presidential Election campaign. Former 10 Downing Street pollster James Johnson had observed that a Farage comeback could have scuppered the Conservatives’ General Election hopes. However, in a confusing attempt to save face, Tice revealed to the media today that Farage would come back to help the campaign despite not standing – whether this proves to be electorally significant remains a different issue.

The Liberal Democrats launch their ‘revival’

After their success in the local elections less than a month ago, when they finished second and ahead of the Conservatives, the Lib Dems have launched their campaign with a bold message to ‘smash the blue wall and kick out the Conservatives’. Leader Ed Davey argued ‘we need to get rid of this divided Conservative party who are incapable of governing’ at the campaign launch in Surrey earlier today.

The 2019 general election saw the Lib Dems win 11 seats, and the party has gained an additional four in subsequent by-elections. The party is now targeting 80 key Conservative seats in what is their strategy to oust the Government. The list includes the constituencies of Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk.

While he has ruled out a coalition deal with the Conservatives, Davey has not done the same for Labour, reviving rumours that started circulating when Starmer clearly stated to Beth Rigby that he would not make a deal with the SNP while refusing to say the same about the Lib Dems.

Parliament prorogued and the wash up begins

With the announcement of a General Election also comes the prorogation of Parliament tomorrow and its full dissolution next Friday. This holds significant implications for the progress of vital Bills with some entering the ‘wash up’ process – where bills are either lost with the dissolution of Parliament or quickly passed through if they have the required support.

In the House of Commons today, the Government’s Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt noted that the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill, the Post Office Horizon Bill, the Finance Bill, and the Victims and Prisoners Bill would be included. This leaves notable Bills such as the Media Bill, the Football Governance Bill, and the Tobacco and Vapes Bill with the prospect of abandonment despite the Tobacco and Vapes Bill featuring in the Prime Minister’s address to the nation yesterday. Whether these bills are picked up by Labour is a separate question for their manifesto as their support of the bills may not guarantee their inclusion in a future manifesto.