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In this series, we’re exploring how different sectors may be impacted by autumn policy announcements and how you can prepare for a period without physical party conferences.

The education and skills sector will be a critical one this Autumn, as it will be central to the recovery from COVID-19, and particularly important as the furlough scheme draws to a close in October. This ties into Education Secretary Gavin Williamson’s announcement of an overhaul in further education in July as part of the Government’s levelling up agenda. Hopefully, we will see further details of this ‘fundamental change’ with the publication of a White Paper in further education, as well as the implementation of Government measures to counteract the impact of the employment crisis on young people.

Opportunity Guarantee
As part of the Government’s ‘build back better’ plan for recovery from Covid-19, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised an Opportunity Guarantee to help young people get into work, stating in June that every young person will be given the chance of an apprenticeship or work placement. This was first mentioned by Education Committee Chair Robert Halfon and further supported by Chancellor Rishi Sunak in his Summer statement, announcing a bonus of £2,000 for firms who hire a new young apprentice aged 16-24 and £1,500 for apprentices over 25. It is unclear how successful this will be, as apprentices were made redundant amidst the wider employment crisis caused by the pandemic. Furthermore, some stakeholders have said the bonus will be wasted on larger employers who would be hiring apprenticeships anyway. Nevertheless the promise has gained traction, with many calling for the Government to publicly commit to the promise, given numerous reports that the economic consequences of the pandemic will fall heavily on young people.

T-Levels
The Government is planning to launch T-levels this autumn, despite requests to postpone the launch due to coronavirus concerns. These 2 year-courses, equivalent to 3 A levels, will be a mix of classroom learning and ‘on-the-job’ experience from Industry Placements, and have been introduced. The first 3 T levels will be available from September 2020 in Design, Surveying and Planning for Construction, Digital Production, Design and Development, Education and Childcare, with a further 7 courses set to be introduced in 2021.

This is a major part of the Government’s plans to improve technical education in the UK and the courses are supposed to differentiate from apprenticeships, which are more heavily geared around on-the-job experience and designed for people who want to enter the workforce at 16. As opposed to a direct route to work, T levels are described by the Government as an alternative to A levels and a pathway to further study. However, the roll out is controversial as in March the awarding bodies for the first three T levels asked the Government to delay their plans, on the basis that colleges would likely be in ‘crisis and recovery mode’ until the Autumn term. However the Government has decided to go ahead with the initial launch date, with Skills Minister Gillian Keegan writing to providers in April about how important it is that students do not lose out on opportunities due to COVID-19.

Further Education White paper
In a speech hosted by the Social Market Foundation, Secretary of State for Education Gavin Williamson announced the publication of a White Paper this autumn which will set out ‘long-term change’ for further education. This will be an important step in supporting the Government’s ambitions to level up the country, and address skills shortages in certain sectors which may be impacted by Brexit later in the year.

Reform in this area will also be tightly linked to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as many will need to reskill. Although speculative, it is thought the document will focus on four ‘pillars’ of funding, qualifications, workforce and careers, as well as a mechanism for bringing failing colleges under state control and giving Ofqual powers to make funding decisions about different qualifications.

Schools Reopening
Over the summer the Government have been clear that Schools and Colleges will reopen fully in September, despite controversy over the safety of doing so. Plans for returning safely include staggered start times and grouping whole year groups into bubbles, with teachers moving between different groups to facilitate teaching the full curriculum. Teachers unions have expressed continuing fears over the safety of reopening, as they say Government plans rely on lower-levels of COVID-19 in the community and a fully functioning test and trace contact system. They have also called for the Government to have a ‘Plan B’, in case these qualifiers have not been reached. However, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has stated that teaching unions cannot be allowed to ‘dictate’ when children go back to school and urged cooperation and support from the unions to get children to help the ‘national recovery’. There have also been suggestions that further restrictions in other areas of the community may be necessary to allow this to happen.

Another issue is that in a deal with Government to secure a bailout package, TfL agreed to suspend free transport for under-18s from September onwards. Undoubtedly this will impact low-incomes families and young people’s access to education and campaigners, including London Mayor Sadiq Khan, have called on the Government to reconsider these changes. Following Marcus Rashford’s successful campaign on free school meals support for disadvantaged children, it is possible that there will be some change here, but undoubtedly will be a talking point when schools return in September.

In this series, we’re exploring how different sectors may be impacted by autumn policy announcements and how you can prepare for a period without physical party conferences.

Over the past few months, the health and social care sector has been dominated by its response to coronavirus. This blog will look at the biggest impacts COVID-19 has had on the health and social care sector and highlight where we could see temporary or permanent changes to its systems.

Healthcare
In the early phase of the pandemic non-Covid NHS services were rolled back amid fears that the NHS would become overwhelmed with the approaching coronavirus peak. Over the past few months there has been a reduction in diagnostics, referrals, and treatment for illnesses, as well as a drop in the number of people attending appointments with their GPs and hospitals, amid fears of catching COVID-19. Consequently there is a now massive backlog in care need, and fears that NHS waiting lists could reach 10 million by the end of the year. The impact of this has been felt across the health sector. Cancer Research has said that a third of cancer patients have had their treatment disrupted by coronavirus and estimate 38,000 fewer treatments than usual have taken place, since lockdown began. Similarly, the British Heart Foundation has highlighted that in cardiovascular health, an estimated 5,000 heart attack sufferers in England may have missed out on life saving hospital treatment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, coronavirus has exacerbated mental health problems for many, leaving charities worried that services need additional Government support. This comes as Mind reports that during lockdown one in four people who tried to access NHS mental health services were unable to get any help.

There has been a phased return to services, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock calling in late April for people to use non-Covid health services, and more recently in July, NHS England announced its third phase to the pandemic response, where it said: ‘Having pulled out all the stops to treat Covid patients over the last few months, our health services now need to redouble their focus on the needs of all other patients too, while recognising the new challenges of overcoming our current Covid-related capacity constraints.’ The plan calls for a return to near normal level of service in August and preparations to be made for increased winter pressures.

This comes with £3bn worth of Government funding for the NHS to prepare for winter, including upgrades to A&E services. However, with greater social distancing, PPE and hygiene measures required in hospitals treating coronavirus cases, the Nuffield Trust have warned that the capacity and speed at which health services can operate in the coming months will not reach typical levels. In addition, for the longer term, there are calls for a rethink of how NHS systems and bodies interact with each other, in light of greater partnership working during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.

Social care
Coronavirus has been felt most harshly by the social care sector. From March to July, there were 30,500 more deaths among care home residents, than would usually be expected for the same time period. With a COVID-19 social care plan not announced until the mid-April, issues including PPE shortages in care settings, deaths amongst care staff and the discharge of 25,000 patients from hospital into care homes without a COVID-19 test, dominated headlines in the pandemic’s early stages. Elderly people with dementia have been acutely impacted with the Office for National Statistics estimating in July that half of all deaths in care homes from COVID-19 were people with dementia. Meanwhile, in the Care Quality Commission reported that between April and May there was a 134% increase in the number of deaths of people with a learning disability and/or autism, who receive services from adult social care, independent hospitals and in the community.

Calls for social care reform have grown. The Health Foundation has argued that successive Governments have failure to improve the social care system and left it ‘underfunded, understaffed, and at risk of collapse’ at the start of the pandemic and it calls for urgent reform to address the ‘longstanding policy failures exposed by COVID-19’. Matt Hancock promised social care reform in his recent ‘Future of Healthcare’ speech to the Royal College of Physicians. He said: ‘Now it’s time to set clear ambitions about the future of social care in this country and fix an issue that has been ducked for far too long’. He indicated plans for a fairer system with more money going into social care, greater integration with health systems, the building of effective structures on accountability and recognition for carers.

Digital
With social distancing, the coronavirus pandemic has generated a massive shift in the number of people accessing the healthcare system digitally. In the 4 weeks leading up to 12 April, 71% of routine GP consultations were delivered remotely, compared to 25% being held remotely the same period last year. Matt Hancock has suggested that this should continue with telecommunications being used firstly, and face-to-face appointments only used when clinically necessary or for when people can’t use digital technology. He believes the use of digital could free up time for clinicals and enable the NHS to run a smoother service. Alternatively, the Royal College of General Practitioners has argued that a 50/ 50 split between in person and digital is a more ‘realistic and sensible’ target. It warns that a digital first approach to general practice could exacerbate health inequalities as those with complex needs, or people who are less ‘tech savvy’ risk being isolated from healthcare services.

The Health Foundation has raised similar concerns, highlighting that digital appointments are more likely to happen in regions of high deprivation, as GPs at high risk of COVID-19, and required to work from home, are more likely to live in poorer areas. Meanwhile, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine has released a statement on access to emergency care, where it recognised the role telecommunications could play in maintaining social distancing in urgent care units. It recommends that 999, general practice and NHS 111 are used to direct people to the correct services, instead of allowing people to turn up at A&E units themselves.

Health inequalities
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed and exacerbated health inequalities across multiple intersectionalities. Research from the Office for National Statistics has showed that people of a black ethnicity are over 4 times more likely to die from a COVID-19-related death than people of a white ethnicity. Whilst those highly deprived and densely populated urban areas, or those who work in lower paid occupations such as in construction or social care, were the hardest hit by the virus. Public Health England published a rapid review in May, which confirmed concerns over widening health inequalities. Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch is now leading the work on its findings. Work includes reviewing the effectiveness of Government actions to lessen the disproportionate impact of coronavirus and the commissioning of further research where there are gaps in evidence.

Winter coronavirus outbreak
Despite coronavirus infections levels diminishing since the peak, the health sector is still on alert for future waves, with fears being compounded by a potentially harsh winter flu outbreak spreading alongside coronavirus. Last month, the Academy of Medical Sciences warned in a report commissioned by the Government’s SAGE committee, that a potential second wave of coronavirus infections this winter could be ‘more serious than the first’.

It highlights that with the NHS typically under more pressure in winter, numerous measures are essential to prevent a second spike, including minimizing the spread of coronavirus, creating ‘Covid-free zones’ in hospitals and increasing the capacity of Test and Trace. In preparation for winter, the Government has rolled out a 90 minute return Covid test which will enable clinicians to rapidly advise patients on their coronavirus status and differentiate between the more common winter flu. They have also expanded the winter flu immunization programme, so millions more vulnerable people will be able to access the flu vaccine, in the hope to relieve some winter pressures on the health service. Finally, the Test and Trace programme, which has come under recent criticism with decreasing levels of contacts being followed up by contact tracers, is considered to be a key part of the Government’s coronavirus response in coming months.

In this series, we’re exploring how different sectors may be impacted by autumn policy announcements and how you can prepare for a period without physical party conferences.

The Higher Education sector has been severely impacted by the Coronavirus pandemic and this disruption is likely to continue into the Autumn. Universities this year face competition for domestic students because of the drop in international student numbers, as well as pressure to deliver attractive-looking courses under ‘new normal’ social distancing restrictions.

In Research and Development, funding will also be crucial as the Universities bail-out tapped into £100m of future R&D funding, which is even more concerning as we approach the end of the transition period in December 2020, having left the European Union. The Government has committed to working with Universities as part of developing the UK’s research and innovation output and announced a move away from the target of getting 50% of young people into University this year, so it will be interesting to see how these objectives play out in parallel.

A new version of the University experience
Universities will return in the Autumn with a very different looking version of the ‘University Experience’. Although they have been given guidance by the Government, during a recent Education Committee session University Minister Michelle Donelan was careful to stress that Universities are autonomous institutions and will need to carry out their own risk assessments to ensure the safety of students. This will severely impact how freshers’ week and the social elements of University life is carried out, as well as the everyday logistics of thousands of students, small campuses, and other learning facilities. Despite fears over student numbers dwindling because of the restrictions, a record 40.5% of all 19-year olds in the UK applied to go to University this year, with the numbers actually increasing during lockdown.

Further, to add to financial pressure caused by a drop in international student numbers, groups like NUS have been campaigning for an option of reimbursement for the last academic year. Students have been told they can complain to the Ombudsman if they haven’t received adequate tutoring in line with other years, so there is pressure to deliver on COVID-safe courses.

It will be interesting to see how different Universities navigate this, with some famously suspending all lectures until 2021. There have also been warnings that risk assessments should include mental health considerations, as students face being away from their families for the first time, combined with restrictions around social support.

Augar Review Response
The Government commissioned Augar Review into post-18 education was published in May 2019, and made sweeping recommendations for further and higher education, including cutting tuition fees and setting up lifelong learning allowances for degree or further education programmes. Although the Government has delayed its response and any policy changes, a press release outlining changes to higher technical education in July mentioned the upcoming measures announced would complement the review.

The Government has announced commitments to improve the further education sector and but haven’t so far commented on any other higher education reforms, so it will be interesting to see if it includes this sector, and if so, what the response will be.

Grades Scandal
Due to the pandemic, A level examinations were cancelled this year and replaced by a combination of teacher predictions and a class, school and subject standardisation process. Exams regulator Ofqual confirmed the appeals process earlier this year; with concerns being expressed early on by the Education Committee and stakeholders around the suppression of grades, potential for bias, and adequate support for disadvantaged students in the appeals process.

The Scottish Exam Board SQA recently came under fire for suppressing the grades of thousands students when external markers downgraded teachers’ predictions. Statistics have suggested this disproportionality impacted pupils at schools in disadvantaged areas, and in response First Minister Nicola Sturgeon apologised and agreed to accept teachers assessments.

Despite this foresight, A level results day in England has been similarly disruptive, with just under 40% of A levels being downgraded from teacher’s assessments on Thursday 13 August and thousands of young people missing out on University places. The Government has said grades remained broadly stable with a 2.5% increase in As and A*s, however because of the standardisation used, students from disadvantaged areas were worst hit whilst private schools saw an increase in the proportion of students achieving top grades.

The Government have so far announced a taskforce of Ministers and exam regulators Ofqual to tackle this issue, and have offered free appeals for students this year, echoing Sturgeon’s actions a few weeks ago, however we can expect to see further movement on this extremely important issue. Similarly to Scotland, there have been calls for Education Secretary Gavin Williamson to resign over the mishandling of this issue from the Liberal Democrats, with Labour asking for the results system to be scrapped.

The Government has celebrated more disadvantaged students going University this year than ever before, but it remains to be seen how the disproportionate impact of standardisation effects social mobility and access to University.

Research and Development Spending
The Government has been focussed on Research and Development spending as a means to turn post-Brexit Britain into a ‘science-superpower’. As such, the Conservative Manifesto committed to increasing R&D spending by 2.4%, with an increase in public investment to £22bn a year by 2024-5 announced in the Budget in March 2020. You can expect this conversation to be ramped up in the lead up to the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December 2020, but also as part of the recovery from COVID-19, mentioned by the Secretary for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in the UK Research and Development Roadmap published in July.

The Roadmap defines dynamic innovation and research as part of an interconnected system across government, academia and universities, and states the Government is ‘not afraid to make tough choices’ in ensuring this system is fit for purpose. It’s possible these changes will start to be made this year, given the Government’s apparent focus on this area of the sector.