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Written by Helen Stott and Michael Kane.

It was nearly a month ago that the United Kingdom voted to deliver Labour to their first electoral majority since 2005, leaving the Conservatives with a measly 121 seats.

The democratic repercussions of this result are potentially seismic, with Labour propelled to over 400 seats on a 33.7% share of the UK wide vote. Yet, research from the IPPR showed that only 52.4% of adults voted. The Conservatives and Labour – two parties who have come to dominate UK politics over the last 100 years – only received just over 55% of the vote share combined.

How have the parties responded to this? What have we learned one month on from the General Election?

Labour’s first few days: the formation of the Government

The day after Labour achieved its landslide victory, Starmer’s senior team will have been well aware of the need to hit the ground running. There was no time to waste on last minute reshuffles, so Starmer’s Government for the most part mirrors the makeup of his Shadow Cabinet when they were Opposition. There are a few notable exceptions, however. Starmer was forced to find alternatives when former Shadow Cabinet members Thangham Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth both lost their seats. More surprisingly, Emily Thornberry was snubbed for Attorney General after shadowing the role for over three years. Starmer instead appointed Lord Hermer, who has more extensive legal experience and, interestingly, was a key signatory of a letter which espoused that Israel must be guided by international law. This perhaps signals that Starmer has heard the concerns of voters who rejected Labour over its position on Israel, and is prepared to shift to a more critical stance.

Labour set their priorities and agenda

Later in the month, Labour used the King’s Speech to set out their immediate priorities for Government, launching a jam-packed legislative agenda, with almost 40 new Bills introduced. The speech focused on Labour’s economic growth mission, with measures announced to reform planning laws, renationalise railways, and create a new publicly-owned clean energy company in Great British Energy.

However, Starmer has faced his first rebellion, as seven Labour MPs broke the party whip to vote for an SNP tabled amendment calling to end the two-child benefit cap. There had been speculation that the Government would compromise on this due to external pressure, but instead Starmer responded by suspending the rebels – including former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. These strong arm tactics send a clear message to the new intake of MPs that Starmer expects absolute loyalty, but will his refusal to abolish this much derided policy backfire?

The Labour leadership have signalled that they would be open to ending the two-child limit in the future, but at the moment they are standing firm that public finances are not in the place for immediate action. Backbench MPs will be appeased by Starmer’s commitment to setting up a child poverty task force, but if this does not start delivering change soon, we may see more significant rebellions in future.

Throughout Labour’s first few weeks in Government, senior Cabinet members have had their own individual moments in the sun to help Labour set the policy and political agenda in their favour. On 11 July, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting announced an investigation into the NHS, also resuming talks with junior doctors regarding industrial action.

Minister for Women and Equalities Bridget Phillipson continued this reset sentiment as she conducted a question and answer session on 16 July, noting that her priority was to ‘reset the relationship between the Department and the education sector.’ Phillipson also launched a curriculum and assessment review on 19 July. On 22 July, testament to its importance to Labour’s agenda, Starmer himself spoke on Labour’s plans to establish Skills England and reform the ‘broken’ skills system, which he argued had failed young people. A day later, and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall reasserted the focus on employment and training as she unveiled the Government’s plans to tackle economic inactivity among young people.

In a similar vein, earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave a statement to the Commons, where she said public finances were in an even worse state than they had believed prior to the election. Reeves claims that Labour have inherited a ‘black hole’ of £22bn of unfunded spending promises, announcing the cancellation of various infrastructure projects committed to by the previous Government, and means testing the pensioners’ winter fuel payment in order to fill the gap. Part of the ‘black hole’ Reeves mentioned is from the cost of giving public sector workers a 5.5% pay rise – something which the previous Government avoided doing. Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt strongly repudiated Reeves’ claims and accused her of ‘laying the ground for tax rises’.

Reeves has since confirmed tax rises will be announced as part of October’s Budget, although she reaffirmed that Labour would stick to its manifesto promise not to hike national insurance, VAT, or income tax. Whether tax hikes will be accompanied by further spending cuts remains to be seen.

Is Vaughan Gething’s resignation Keir Starmer’s first hiccup as Prime Minister?

With the drama of the General Election, attention had been pulled away from devolved politics. Then Vaughan Gething announced he will be stepping down as First Minister of Wales after just 78 days in office. Gething’s premiership was plagued by scandal from the very beginning, as he faced questions over his election campaign donations, and the sacking of ministers over leaked text conversations. This led Plaid Cymru to pull out of their cooperation agreement with Welsh Labour, and Gething was forced to resign after facing a no confidence vote and numerous cabinet resignations.

Cabinet Secretary for Health Eluned Morgan looks set to become the next First Minister, as she was elected unopposed as Welsh Labour’s first female leader. Writing for Labourlist, former Welsh Cabinet Minister Lee Waters said there needed to be ‘honest debate’ about the future of Welsh Labour, cautioning that it could go the same way as Scottish Labour in the 2010s. Waters also pointed out that while First Past the Post served Labour very well during the most recent Westminster elections, the Welsh Parliament will be moving to a new proportional system in 2026, which may leave Welsh Labour in trouble if their polling doesn’t go up.

For Starmer, this debacle over the Welsh leadership may draw an unwelcome comparison to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s struggles with the devolved Governments upon the establishment of Holyrood and Senedd in the 1990s. Blair had famously struggled initially to get his preferred candidate as either Welsh or Scottish First Minister. Whether the Welsh Government proves to be a hiccup for Starmer is yet to be seen.

Conservative leadership race begins in a surprisingly low key fashion

Conservative leadership battles are often seismic in both their political significance and their domination of political debate. Testament to this: the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in 1990; John Major standing down, only recapture the leadership against John Redwood in 1995; and David Cameron’s ‘no notes’ victory against then favourite David Davis. Yet, the current leadership contest seems far removed from previous Conservative leadership battles. Perhaps this is a reflection of the Conservatives’ sidelined position against a Labour Government, who control the Commons so emphatically.

As we stand, the Conservatives will continue with ousted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as the Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) until their new leader is elected on the 2 November. Nominations were formally declared earlier this week for Tom Tugendhat; Mel Stride; James Cleverly; Kemi Badenoch; Robert Jenrick; and Priti Patel (read more about the leadership candidates and their backgrounds here).

This should be a significant Conservative leadership race, with the winner required to guide the party through a potentially fragile five years, squeezed from the left (the Liberal Democrats) and the right (Reform UK). The Conservatives must also negotiate their identity in the face of a post-Brexit UK, as the party has not won an outright majority in the Commons since the 1992 General Election without a major electoral promise on Europe. While this observation may be unwelcome to some it signifies the wider identity crisis that the future leader must confront and address to unite the party and challenge Labour at the next election.

What to expect in the months ahead

As Parliament heads into recess, the Government will be looking to prepare as much as possible for what will inevitably be a packed Parliamentary schedule in Autumn. Parliament will return in September for a brief session before adjourning again for party conference season. We can expect the mood at the Labour party conference to be triumphant, although the leadership may also face pushback on the two-child benefit from a disgruntled membership.

Meanwhile, at the Conservative party conference, there will be a debate between the four remaining leadership candidates – a key moment in determining the future of the party.

For regular updates on what is happening in UK politics and public affairs, sign up to our weekly Point of Order newsletter, going out every Friday morning.

Written by Michael Kane and Helen Stott. 

With the King’s Speech, Labour may have hoped to represent an emancipatory moment after almost a generation in what seemed to be perennial opposition. However, it was instead borne out of the political, economic, and democratic challenges that riddle the UK right now.

It’s 15 years since Labour’s last State Opening of Parliament, where Gordon Brown’s Government’s final legislative programme was influenced by external factors. Specifically, one key proposal focused on strengthening the governance of financial services amid the backdrop of increasing negative sentiment towards bankers and a global financial crisis. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first legislative programme may also be shaped, and perhaps constrained, by significant external factors.

Labour are facing what Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called the worst fiscal inheritance since 1945, with a ballooning tax burden and national debt, mixed in with struggling public services, alongside a wider feeling of political apathy. For instance, the 2024 British Social Attitudes revealed that 79% of participants were dissatisfied with the way the UK is governed. Meanwhile, University College London’s ‘Policy Lab’ report found 74% of the public now believe that Britain is rigged to serve the rich and influential.

This feeling arguably manifested in the 2024 General Election, with only 52% of adults in the UK voting, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research. Interestingly, this is the lowest figure since universal suffrage for those over 21 years old was granted in 1928. This is complemented by a sentiment of democratic deficit around Labour, with their 170 seat majority being propelled by a meagre 34% of the vote. To add to this, the election highlighted the relative fragility of Labour’s electoral coalition, with the Greens doing well in more cosmopolitan urban areas, and Reform UK finishing second in a significant number of Labour’s traditional ‘red wall’ heartlands.

In this sense, Starmer’s legislative programme comes at a time of immense challenges for the country where few actually believe political institutions can address them.

Economic growth and interventionism

Prior to the election, many would have been forgiven for tuning out of Labour’s economic message for how repetitive it was – the central tenet being that the UK must return to economic growth. It formed the first mission of Labour’s five: to make the UK the fastest growing economy in the G7. Only four days into Government, and Reeves reminded us that striving for economic growth would dictate HM’s Treasury activity. This focus on economic growth stems from two places – Labour’s repudiation of the UK’s economic stagnation under the previous government, and the practical necessity of funding their plans for public services, housing, and the impending net zero and digital transition. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones admitted to Channel 4 that the only way to ‘find more money to spend on public services is by growing the economy’.

The pre-eminence of growth is also evident in King Charles’ remarks, which were composed by the Government. In an age of 24-hour news, most people’s exposure to the King’s Speech comes through brief coverage of the King’s remarks, rather than the Bills themselves. Therefore, it’s significant that King Charles opened his speech by detailing the Government’s mission to secure economic growth before detailing the means that Labour will employ to achieve this: 1) planning reform; 2) GB Energy; and 3) Skills England.

All three of these tenets arguably represent a shift to a more interventionist approach from Labour. Their proposals on planning reform would represent a sudden departure from the Conservatives’ inaction through the implementation of new compulsory purchase compensation rules and mandatory housing targets. Whether this proves to be morally contradictory with Labour’s desire to devolve decision making to local communities (the English Devolution Bill) remains to be seen.

Likewise, the legislation to create GB Energy clarified that it will not just serve as an investment vehicle but will ‘own, manage, and operate clean power projects’ – a radical shift, perhaps, from the implication by Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden that it may only serve as a funnel for private investment. Skills England is the proposal that ties these measures together. The new national skills body would develop a ‘national and local picture’ of skills shortages through working with the ‘Migration Advisory Committee, unions and the Industrial Strategy Council’. Such a proposal is a direct attempt to remedy skills gaps and labour shortages – as illustrated by the New Economics Foundation. These gaps, along with low productivity, impeded the prior Government’s pursuit of growth and limited its ability to address the housing crisis or the impending net zero transition.

These three proposals under the overarching vision of economic growth may indeed illustrate a more interventionist approach than initially suspected – however, only once the Government’s tax and spending plans are elucidated in the forthcoming Budget can this be confirmed.

Interventionism continued through the New Deal for Working People

Years winning the 2024 General Election, Labour had been clear that their plans for economic growth would go hand-in-hand with those to strengthen workers’ rights. The Government used the King’s Speech to introduce the Employment Rights Bill, which the party says will deliver on the policies set out in its New Deal for Working People. This includes requiring that employers accommodate flexible working ‘as far as reasonable’; banning zero hour contracts; ending ‘fire and rehire’ practices; removing ‘unnecessary restrictions’ on trade unions; and strengthening other employment rights, such as parental leave, sick pay, and protection from unfair dismissal. Alongside the Bill, Labour said that they will introduce a ‘genuine living wage’ and get rid of age bands for pay.

The last Government had somewhat adversarial relationships with the trade unions, and as Labour come into power we will see this relationship shift drastically. However, that doesn’t mean it will all be plain sailing. It is true that Labour has a structural link with the trade union movement going back to the party’s creation, and unions like Unite remain some of Labour’s biggest donors. However, Starmer and Reeves have repeatedly stressed that they want Labour to be the ‘natural party of business’, and under Starmer’s leadership the proportion of party funding received from companies and individuals has dwarfed the contribution of unions. Sharon Graham, who won the election to become General Secretary of Unite in 2021, has taken quite a pragmatic stance towards Starmer’s Labour party – she has not threatened dis-affiliation, but has been very clear that her unions’ continued financial support comes with strings attached. Prior to the General Election, she refused to give the union’s endorsement to Labour’s manifesto, and there has been protracted conflict between the Labour leadership and the unions over what some see as a watering down of the original commitments on workers’ rights.

The contents of the Bill announced during the King’s Speech last week will likely please the unions, but the legislation will have to go through debate in Parliament, and business will be lobbying to make sure the new regulations don’t impact their bottom line too much. Business leaders have already voiced their concern about some of the proposals. Earlier this year the President of the Confederation for British Industry said the UK needed to avoid a ‘European model’ of excessive regulation, warning of the ‘unintended consequences’ of Labour’s plans. The difficulties Labour will have in implementing this legislation are symptomatic of the fragile coalition they need to hold together should they survive another term in government.

What’s missing and what’s next?

While the King’s Speech proved to be a comprehensive legislative programme with over 35 Bills, it is equally important to pay attention to what was omitted. King Charles’ speech made reference to the Government’s intention to regulate AI and reform the apprenticeship levy, but there weren’t any Bills introduced on these topics. This indicates that they may be on the Government’s future legislative agenda, but are not an immediate priority.

Ending the VAT tax break for private schools was also mentioned, and this will likely be in the forthcoming budget. Meanwhile, legal migration and the two child benefit limit were not explicitly mentioned. This is interesting, considering how pervasive these issues have been and how they encapsulate some of the electoral challenges Labour face; from the left with the Greens and new intake of Independents, and from the right with Reform UK.

However, since the King’s Speech, there has been some mention of these issues, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson admitting on the morning of the 22 July that the Government would consider ending the two child benefit cap – a stance that Starmer later endorsed. On the same day, Starmer’s speech on plans to establish Skills England posited the reforms through the lens of migration, as he condemned the UK’s overreliance on foreign labour.

While the King’s Speech elucidates how Labour will begin to address the political, economic, and democratic challenges that riddle the UK right now, it is not a comprehensive guide to Labour’s plans. Further clarity will likely come in Labour’s forthcoming Budget and their plans to address the important issues yet to be tackled.

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