With a UK General Election just announced, political journalists are readying for a busy time ahead. But what do reporters in this field want from PRs and comms professionals?
In a recent panel at the Society of Editors Conference, Politico UK editor Jack Blanchard, The Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar, The Sun on Sunday’s political editor Kate Ferguson, and Newsquest North regional editor Gavin Foster discussed the current relationship between politics and the press. Read on for the effect this will have on PRs, and what journalists working in the political media want from you.
Credible and reliable sources
Political journalism, like many sectors of the media, has lost audience trust over the last few years. One of the ways journalists are combatting this is with credible and reliable sources.
‘We have to do a daily sense check on the sourcing of our facts and make sure that they’re credible,’ said Pippa Crerar at The Guardian.
‘Whether that’s something we pick up on social media, whether it’s research which has been emailed, or a rumour that has been passed on’.
Any information you send to political journalists as a PR must be backed up with strong sources. At The Sun on Sunday, Kate Ferguson is now ‘double sourcing’ to ensure reliability. This is also vital at trade publications like Politico, as Jack Blanchard explained:
‘Politico has a very specific audience. It’s read by people who work in politics and people in the media that rely on what we do. We do feel like we have a very high bar to get things right because people will literally be planning their days around our morning email. Fact checking is extremely important to us’.
Knowing the audience
Before contacting journalists, understand the audience they are writing for. Politico, as mentioned above, has a very specific audience – general press releases, or information that is widely available, is unlikely to be used. The time you send is also important – the brand’s London Playbook email goes out by 8am, for example.
There are ‘still quite a hardcore of people that are obsessed with politics’, says Jack. But the key to grabbing their interest is in ‘how we pitch’.
Also important for both national and regional media – tone. Pippa shared that journalists at The Guardian focus on ‘politics from the prism of the country-in, rather than Westminster-out’. Content must be accessible for everyone across the country.
On a regional and local level, Gavin stressed the importance of ‘cutting through the noise to get to what really matters’. When reaching out to media outlets in this area, be clear what the importance is to readers if you want to get coverage.
Differences between the 2019 and 2024 General Elections
The General Election coming up in July this year will be very different to the last.
‘2019 was the “Brexit election”, with Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson. Boris was a personality. He sold: Boris sells politics and sells papers,’ said Kate.
‘Now we have Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer. These are less extreme personalities, less engaging, and in some ways, less polarising as well.’
The media will be searching for different angles. Pippa at The Guardian is keen to get away from ‘just turning up in towns and doing vox pops, but having proper relationships with different parts of the country’.
While young people are ‘switching off party politics’ according to Pippa, she believes this audience is ‘incredibly engaged when it comes to issues like climate’. This gives media coverage opportunities to areas adjacent to the usual political coverage.
Jack said he would ‘like to see a media company start off trying to make videos as their primary way for delivering serious impartial political thinking’. Social media, especially TikTok, is regularly used by the younger demographic as a way to consume news. Media organisations will, as a result, be using these platforms a lot more than they were in 2019.
Not sure how to go about contributing for video? Jack stressed the importance of ‘engaging, interesting, and well-edited’ content. Any press materials must be adaptable and able to be packaged in various formats to suit the needs of the media, and the audiences they engage.
Want to get in touch with political journalists and editors ahead of the election? Connect with them with what they need via Vuelio Media Database.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Soc-of-eds-700x400-1.jpg400700Andrew Strutt/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngAndrew Strutt2024-05-29 16:50:102024-06-06 16:50:26Politics and the press: What the media needs from PRs in the run up to a General Election
Towards the end of 2004, the North East of England voted to reject plans to give the region an elected chamber of 25 representatives. To be more blunt, New Labour’s proposal was completely quashed with 77% of voters rejecting it. This spurred then Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott to comedically hide away from the main vote count in Sunderland.
The referendum’s impact went beyond the borders of County Durham and Northumberland as the emphatic result led to similar proposed referenda proposed in the North West and Yorkshire and Humber being scrapped.
Nonetheless, 20 years on perhaps the political appetite has changed. The most recent set of local elections represented an interesting marking point for northern devolution. It marked the third Tees Valley Mayoral election and the consolidation of the existing North of Tyne Mayoralty into a new North East Mayoralty. This, coupled with the first election of a Mayor for York and North Yorkshire, could indicate that, in some sense, Prescott’s personal mission for northern political devolution was achieved.
The North East perhaps represents the archetypal example of where political devolution is needed. The region lags massively behind its southern counterparts in terms of wages, living standards, education outcomes, health outcomes, and macro economic output – all of which have lasting impact on an individual’s well being. Moreover, a recent report by the IPPR found the North East has the lowest overall and average level of wealth in the country.
Logic dictates that devolving political power to the North will bring economic change through establishing centres of powers which will alleviate economic inequalities. This logic has been furthered by Labour Leader Keir Starmer in his discourse around his proposed Take Back Control Bill.
However, while the 2024 Local Elections may have revealed much in terms of progress towards this mission, it also illustrated the gaps and challenges that still face such political change, some of which may be similar in character to those present in the 2004 referendum.
Houchen’s cult of personality
Moving into the local elections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s political fate seemingly partly rested on the Tees Valley mayoral election, but this contest is significant for reasons beyond national party politics.
Ben Houchen was re-elected in spite of a 16.5% swing to Labour in the election, with commentators noting that Houchen bucked the trend of Conservative casualties across the country. Houchen’s re-election perhaps cements his standing as Mayor, a position he has held since 2017 as he enters his third term.
Such longevity has allowed Houchen to establish his own cult of personality and shape the Tees Valley mayoralty in his image, and this name recognition most definitely helped him in his reelection. Moreover, Houchen’s synonymity with the Tees Valley Combined Authority may lead to similar comparisons to prior London Mayors, such as Sadiq Khan, Ken Livingstone, and Boris Johnson, who also cemented their personal and political attachment with the role.
This has allowed Houchen to add gravitas to the mayoralty and emphasise his own policy priorities. For instance, despite the controversy surrounding Teesworks, Houchen has successfully ploughed public money into Teesside Airport to reacquire and expand it. His re-election will also allow him to pursue his promise of £1 bus fares for under-21s.
Teesside Airport and the action on bus fares encapsulate archetypal examples of devolution in action in the North. This and Houchen’s re-election may suggest where devolution has worked through the cultivation of local policy priorities so the north is not so dependent on national policy movements.
The first steps for the North East Combined Authority
As mentioned prior, the recent local elections also amounted to the first mayoralty election for the new North East Combined Authority. This combined the existing North East Combined Authority and North of Tyne Combined Authority 20 years on from the referendum and nearly 40 years after Tyne and Wear County Council was abolished.
The challenge is huge, with the region lagging behind the South of England in all sorts of life outcome metrics. Despite this, if the wider North East region is to fully grapple issues such as the digital and net zero transition then this is also a beacon of opportunity, with Newcastle representing one of the largest urban centres in the North of England and the wider region hosting a series of large industries who will play a vital role.
It is on Labour’s Kim McGuiness to grapple this challenge after she beat the previous North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Discroll in a semi-competitive election. Discroll was removed from the Labour selection process for the North East Mayor after the central party detailed that they just wanted to secure ‘the highest quality candidates’ – a move criticised by Unite, Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram. Driscoll then stood as an Independent and received 28% of the vote. Discroll’s support sees a parallel to Houchen as his experience of devolution allowed him to partly move beyond party political dogmas and cleavages through cultivating his own political brand. This may speak to the success of existing devolution through allowing the North East to develop its own body politic not contingent on Westminster.
Nonetheless, McGuiness’ victory on 41.3% only represents the start of her journey. The question remains whether she will fully overcome the challenge that Discroll encapsulated: the idea that the Labour Party under Keir Starmer has become too far removed from Corbynism. This is a challenge worsened by McGuinness’ characterisation as a safe pair of hands and her perceived association with Starmerism.
If McGuiness is to succeed, she may do well to carve her own identity and priorities in the spirit of devolution and to remedy the economic inequalities felt in the North. Her innovative ideas to implement North East Careers Hubs in villages, towns, and cities, and free travel for those in education and training may be some means of cementing herself as Houchen has done, while showing that devolution can work for everyone.
Mystery man David Skaith
The recent local elections represented the first Mayoral Election for the new Mayor of York and North Yorkshire, with Labour’s David Skaith winning on 35% of the vote, while the Conservative candidate received 27% and the Liberal Democrat candidate 16%.
Beyond his prior experience of being a small business owner in York, relatively little is known about Skaith specifically. This may be due to the little media attention on this contest with the Westminster bubble more focused on the implications of West Midlands and Tees Valley for Sunak, with few putting their money on Skaith to win in Sunak’s backyard. Given the broken-up nature of the vote, with Skaith winning on only 35%, his first challenge may be out of electoral necessity as he will have to quickly cement himself publicly.
Skaith’s challenge is made harder by the unique composition of the York and North Yorkshire mayoralty. Specifically, the urban-rural divide is stark between the large urban areas of Harrogate and York and the contrasting rolling green hills and farms and smaller towns of Richmond, Leyburn, Thirsk, Northallerton, and Bedale further north. This is compounded by Skaith was carried to victory through 54% of the vote in the York region but only receiving 28% in the more rural North Yorkshire region. Skaith has to ensure that political and economic devolution works for both of these communities, which may make addressing significant issues, such as the green and digital transition, infinitely more tricky to navigate.
Fragile devolution?
Upon the release of the 2004 referendum result, John Tomeney, chairman of the Yes 4 The North East, suggested to The Guardian that the result spoke to something bigger than a regional parliament. He indicated that it represented the ‘growing breakdown in the belief that political institutions can affect people’s lives for the better.’
That referendum and comment came only 20 years ago. Therefore, it is worth remembering that devolution through Combined Authorities and Mayors is fragile and perhaps even embryonic, with the idea only rising in prominence over the last 15 years. This is best exemplified by the minnow levels of turnout, with 29% in the York and North Yorkshire contest, 30% in the Tees Valley, and 31% in the North East election. While this may not be particularly significant in the grand scheme of the national turnout, it still suggests there is wider work to be done to imprint devolution permanently.
In this regard, while the 2024 local elections are a marking point for northern devolution, they are also a starting point. Therefore, the best means to cement northern devolution might be for the current crop of metro mayors to deliver local policy priorities on the range of cross-cutting issues facing the region to guard against the very breakdown that John Tomeney warned of.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/the-2024-northern-elections-northern-rock.jpg507760Michael Kane/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngMichael Kane2024-05-23 16:56:062024-06-17 09:27:38Northern Rock: The 2024 local elections
Following a day of mounting speculation, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed yesterday that he was taking the country to the polls for the first summer election since 1945. Westminster circles were alerted by a series of movements from senior Cabinet members, such as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt cancelling his ITV appearance for later yesterday evening and Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron’s cancelling a trip to Albania. Initially there was speculation of a Cabinet reshuffle, or Hunt even standing down as Chancellor in a wholesale Government refresh. However, the worst fears of marginal Conservative MPs were confirmed by midday, when accredited journalists such as ITV’s Robert Peston started cautiously reporting that the Government planned to call an election.
In an age of social media and the prevalence of media leaks, some suggested that the Government did well to keep the General Election under wraps and away from the media for so long. However, after the unveiling of the infamous podium in front of 10 Downing Street, which has previously hosted impromptu political developments such as Liz Truss and Lord Cameron’s resignations as Prime Minister, everyone’s suspicions were confirmed.
The Government draw their battle lines
Sunak declared that now was the moment for Britain to ‘choose its future.’ In his speech, Sunak’s focus was almost presidential as he initially drew upon his first major political action when he was Chancellor: introducing the furlough scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic, emphasising his prior experience and decisiveness. Sunak argued that the Government is successfully taking action on the economy, pointing to the latest ONS figures which show inflation hasdeclinedto 2.3% – its lowest level in almost three years.
Sunak’s speech echoed hisaddressat a Policy Exchange event last week, which drew on the same themes of rising global instability and the need for strong leadership on security issues. The same battle lines were drawn as Sunak warned that the UK faces increasing threat from ‘the axis of authoritarian states’ such as North Korea, Russia, Iran and China. He also spoke about the threat and opportunity posed by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.
Sunak accused Starmer of hypocrisy for serving under Jeremy Corbyn yet allowing former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke into his party. Moreover, he ridiculed Labour’s plans to ‘depress’ their way to victory as he noted Britain’s alleged inherent optimism. Meanwhile, consistent emphasis on the need to ‘stick with the plan’ against going back to square one made notions of message discipline look infantile.
Labour gearing up for a fight
Speakingshortly after the Prime Minister’s announcement, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told voters that the country’s future is in ‘your hands’, with the simple single-word slogan of ‘change’ written across his podium – a word he repeated several times throughout his short speech. Labour had a chance to refine their election offering at an event last week in Essex, where Starmer unveiled a Blair-stylepledge cardcontaining six ‘first steps’ for a Labour Government. The event featured short speeches from the Shadow Cabinet outlining Labour’s commitment to stabilise the economy, cut NHS waiting times, set up Great British Energy, crack down on antisocial behaviour, recruit 6,500 more teachers, and set up a new Border Security Command. During the event, some journalists put to Starmer that his ‘first steps’ seemed a watering down of his original five ‘missions’, launched back in early 2023. Starmerrespondedthat his missions still stand, but the first steps are a ‘down payment’ on what Labour would do in its first 100 days of government. This move indicates that Starmer will be heading into this General Election with his characteristic caution, focusing on modest promises which are deliverable within the immediate future.
Meanwhile, Labour still has around100 election candidatesleft to announce, and with just six weeks to go, the party will need to turbo-charge its selection process to get candidates out knocking on doors as soon as possible. Over the coming days, a few more sitting Labour MPs are expectedto announce they will not be re-standing, meaning the party will have to find candidates for these seats as well, although this will likely be in Labour ‘safe seats’. The party’s top down selection of candidates, as well as the delay in selecting candidates for ‘non-battleground’ seats, has sparked anger from some Labour members.
The SNP manage expectations in their reaction
The General Election will not just be a top-level political battle between Sunak and Starmer, but also a vital junction for the UK’s smaller parties. North of the border, the election provides the first test for the SNP’s new leader, Scottish First Minister John Swinney. A veteran of the SNP, Swinney will have to draw on his wide ranging experience as his party faces a tough electoral challenge withrecent polling suggesting they could lose as many as 37 seats. This perfectly illustrates the challenge facing the SNP with their 17 years of Government perhaps making them seem tired and old in the face of opposing parties. The contest in Scotland will provide a useful read into the prospects of the wider Labour party with their re-election hopes dependent on significant increases to their current MP count of 2 in Scotland.
The timings could not be worse for the SNP following the recent collapse of Hamza Yousaf’s leadership and the controversy of readmitting right winger Kate Forbes into the Cabinet. As mentioned prior, Swinney will not have to assert himself personally to the Scottish electorate given his varied and significant experience, however he will have to quickly create a coherent policy platform to take on opposing parties – this may be harder to navigate given recent internal turmoil within the party. Nonetheless, yesterday Swinneyaddressedthe Scottish Parliament as he detailed that his main priority of Government was to eradicate child poverty.
In response to the initial announcement, Swinney interestingly arguedthat the timing was ‘unfair’ and ‘disrespectful’ with the date coming in the middle of Scottish school holidays. In a more detailed reaction today, Swinney took a measured and cautious approach, perhaps a reflection of the SNP’s fragility, as hestressedthat he will ‘speak up for Scotland’ while also noting that he has reunited the SNP after a ‘tough time.’
Reform start their campaign but Farage is absent
The Conservatives’ fate at the upcoming General Election will also be contingent on the success of Reform UK. The party’s recent rise in the opinion polls illustrates the squeeze that the Conservatives face from the right of the political spectrum – this follows Reform nearly pushing the Conservatives into 3rd place in the Blackpool South by-election.
In response to the Conservatives’ announcement, Reform held a press conference this morning which had initially been signposted as a reaction to the ONS’ latest immigration data. In thepress conference, Leader Richard Tice derided the high immigration as he also noted that the Conservatives cannot be trusted to cut immigration and that Labour seeks mass immigration. Reform’s focus on immigration and border security went beyond political opportunist semantics as Tice was placed in front of a banner titled ‘The Immigration Election’ as they clearly set their stall. Moreover, following this announcement, Ticedetailedthat he would stand for election in the constituency of Boston and Skegness as he hopes to become Reform’s second MP following Lee Anderson. Interestingly, YouGov later revealed that according to their latest MRP poll, Reform were polling at 25% in the constituency, only 11 points behind the Conservatives.
Nevertheless, Reform’s hopes may be impeded by Nigel Farage’sannouncementthat he would not stand at the upcoming general election but instead focus his efforts on the US Presidential Election campaign. Former 10 Downing Street pollster James Johnson hadobservedthat a Farage comeback could have scuppered the Conservatives’ General Election hopes. However, in a confusing attempt to save face, Ticerevealedto the media today that Farage would come back to help the campaign despite not standing – whether this proves to be electorally significant remains a different issue.
The Liberal Democrats launch their ‘revival’
After their success in the local elections less than a month ago, when they finished second and ahead of the Conservatives, the Lib Dems have launched their campaign with a bold message to ‘smash the blue wall and kick out the Conservatives’. Leader Ed Davey argued ‘we need to get rid of this divided Conservative party who are incapable of governing’ at the campaign launch in Surrey earlier today.
The 2019 general election saw the Lib Dems win 11 seats, and the party has gained an additional four in subsequent by-elections. The party is now targeting 80 key Conservative seats in what is their strategy to oust the Government. The list includes the constituencies of Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk.
While he has ruled out a coalition deal with the Conservatives, Davey has not done the same for Labour, reviving rumours that started circulating when Starmer clearlystatedto Beth Rigby that he would not make a deal with the SNP while refusing to say the same about the Lib Dems.
Parliament prorogued and the wash up begins
With the announcement of a General Election also comes the prorogation of Parliament tomorrow and its full dissolution next Friday. This holds significant implications for the progress of vital Bills with some entering the‘wash up’process – where bills are either lost with the dissolution of Parliament or quickly passed through if they have the required support.
In the House of Commons today, the Government’s Leader of the House Penny Mordauntnotedthat the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill, the Post Office Horizon Bill, the Finance Bill, and the Victims and Prisoners Bill would be included. This leaves notable Bills such as the Media Bill, the Football Governance Bill, and the Tobacco and Vapes Bill with the prospect of abandonment despite the Tobacco and Vapes Bill featuring in the Prime Minister’s address to the nation yesterday. Whether these bills are picked up by Labour is a separate question for their manifesto as their support of the bills may not guarantee their inclusion in a future manifesto.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/rishi-sunak-general-election-2024-announcement.jpg507760Michael Kane/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngMichael Kane2024-05-23 16:46:402024-06-10 16:12:53Rishi Sunak announces a General Election
Having a full view of your wider stakeholder conversations across media, online, and social media gives you an advantage when shaping your comms strategy. Access to data across multiple channels can help you detect emerging trends and crises, and provide insights into public opinion, identify misinformation, and present opportunities to educate where needed.
For insight into the media and online landscape when it comes to conflict, we took the topic of foreign aid and tracked the conversation between 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2023 with our sister platform Pulsar.
Read on for how stakeholder insight can help you tailor your comms strategy.
Trends dominating the foreign aid discussion from November 2022 – October 2023
Volumes of the Foreign Aid conversation on X between 1 November 2022 and 31 October 2023. Source: Pulsar TRAC
Mentions of different themes in the Foreign Aid conversation between 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2023. Source: Pulsar TRAC
As global conflict unfolded throughout 1 November 2022 to 31 October 2023, related media coverage naturally grew to keep the public informed. But which topics took up the most attention when it came to foreign aid?
Tracking sharing of, and engagement with, posts on X during this period uncovered obvious subjects peaking the discussion. These included countries involved in geo-political crisis – ‘Ukraine’ and ‘Israel’ – as well as where displaced members of their population would go for safety (‘immigration’).
Alongside these aforementioned trends was a significant engagement with the topics of the domestic need for money and corruption – two issues that often go hand-in-hand with the costly realities of conflict and aid.
News sources dominating the conversation of foreign aid between Nov 22 – Oct 23
Volume of Outlet by Credibility on X in the Foreign Aid conversation between Nov 1 2022 – Oct 31 2023. Source: Pulsar TRAC
When looking at media outlets across the world, expected long-established news sources including The Guardian, the Express, and BBC News produced plenty of coverage and engagement during the year of analysis. Outlets considered non-credible by Pulsar’s misinformation detection – including the US-based right-wing brand Breitbart – also feature. But at the top is a relative newcomer to the press landscape – GB News.
Launched in 2021, GB News’ right-leaning political slant has attracted an audience with a matching right-wing mindset. UK politicians regularly feature in GB News programming (to some controversy), clips are shared across social platforms, and other news outlets regularly cover its fluctuating fortunes. Despite questions around impartiality and audience numbers, its influence online grows.
How do political leanings impact which topics attract the most engagement from stakeholders, and how can you attract attention with your own comms?
Which topics interest which stakeholders
Share of Narratives by Community in the Foreign Aid conversation between Nov 1 2022 – Oct 31 2023. Normalized to 100. Source: Pulsar TRAC
An analysis of stakeholders grouped by their political affiliations (as identified by their online affinities and behaviours) shows their differing preoccupations and interests, as well as different styles of interaction with messaging.
A comparison of UK-based Conservatives, UK Republicans, and Left-leaning audiences engaging in the online foreign aid conversation unearths high engagement for ‘immigration’ topics from right-wingers in the United Kingdom, with less engagement for ‘Israel’ and the ‘Domestic Need for Money’.
Left-wingers are equally engaged in the four of these trending topics tracked, while US right-wingers engaging in these topics were most invested in Ukraine and Corruption-focused reporting.
What does this show us? US and UK right-wing stakeholders engaged in singular discussions, with broader narratives taking the attention of global left-wingers.
Volume, visibility & impressions for communities on X between Nov 1 2022 – Oct 31 2023. Normalized to 100. Source: Pulsar TRAC
Analysing impressions (how many people see the content) versus visibility (a bespoke Pulsar metric that reflects how how much impact a piece of content has) also uncovers a clear difference – right-wing content between November 2022 and October 2023 gained viral traction in specific communities, where left-leaning content resonated more widely.
What does this mean when seeking meaningful engagement with all groups, regardless of political affiliation?
Engaging your stakeholders with your comms
Tailoring your strategy and communications for each audience online is how to hit each of your stakeholder segments. Considering where each of these gets their information and how they share it with their own communities provides a map for reaching them.
This could mean making Facebook groups or podcasts a part of your outreach strategy alongside the news channels your stakeholders watch daily with your messaging, or creating short-form content for specific social media platforms designed to be shared quickly and widely.
Engaging with global conversations of conflict is complicated, but an understanding of your stakeholders, where to find them, what they interact with, and how, provides a clearer direction for your comms strategy going forward.
For more on planning your strategy in times of crisis, find out about Vuelio’s horizon scanning solutions.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/insights-and-engagement-from-foreign-aid-discourse.jpg507760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-05-08 16:39:442024-06-26 10:51:57Insights from engagement in Foreign Aid discourse
The Post Office Horizon scandal continues to take up column inches and spark political debate.
What lessons can be learned from the ongoing PR crisis? And how did the story explode so quickly across multiple platforms?
We analysed media coverage, Parliamentary events, and online mentions of ‘Post Office scandal’ between December 2023 to March 2024 to better understand how the story evolved from an under-reported legal issue, to prime time TV fodder and social virality, to a topic debated in Parliament.
Read our case study to learn:
How brand controversies move from platform to platform when left unchecked
How a crisis strategy can mitigate the risks of growing controversy
How horizon-scanning can help prepare for what lies ahead
Why staying on top of both media and political conversations will help you identify the right stakeholders
Download the report by filling in the form below 👇
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Post-office-Scandal-linkedin.png6271200Yi Chen Lin/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngYi Chen Lin2024-04-11 13:57:322024-11-13 10:40:32How an ITV drama brought the Post Office Scandal back into the spotlight
With huge costs, mounting opposition and doubts over effectiveness, the Government’s Rwanda Bill is arguably the key underlying force behind the current lack of unity within the Conservative Party. It’s a situation some have labelled as reminiscent of the Theresa May era, where chaos consumed Parliament.
With the General Election looking set for October, and the Conservatives falling behind in the polls, just how much of an issue is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approach, and is the issue of immigration overall influential enough to detract voters?
The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill in substance claims that Rwanda is a country to which it is safe for the UK to relocate asylum seekers. This is despite unanimous rulings from the Supreme Court that Rwanda is in fact not a safe country, as defined by the EU. The proposed legislation also acknowledges that the Home Secretary cannot confirm it is in accordance with the UK’s human rights obligations and seeks to disapply certain sections of the UK’s Human Rights Act.
Parliamentary happenings and progression of the Bill
At the end of 2023, Robert Jenrick resigned as Immigration Minister over the Government’s inability to be ‘tough’ on asylum and immigration policy, stating that the emergency Rwanda legislation ‘does not go far enough’. Although not a shocking move, some have labelled it a personal betrayal by Jenrick, with Jenrick also accusing Sunak of failing to keep his repeated promise to ‘stop the boats’. This move by Jenrick signalled the start of issues with party unity for Sunak and the Conservatives with other so called rebels quick to follow Jenrick’s lead and demonstrate opposition and rebellion.
As the Bill moved through the House and made its way to the Whole House Committee stage, Conservatives, Jenrick and Sir Bill Cash, put forward highly contested amendments that sought to ignore rulings from both domestic and international courts, remove input from the ECHR, and block suspensive claims against removal. The amendments were backed by some 60 Conservative MPs, including the likes of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. Following this rebellion, former Deputy Chairmen of the Conservative Party Lee Anderson, and Brendan Clarke-Smith, resigned their positions in order to continue voting in favour of these amendments, and thus ultimately against Sunak.
In recent weeks, we have seen the Lords rebut the Rwanda Bill back to the Commons with amendments already rejected by MPs. As expected, delay to the progression of the Bill is likely, with Peers insisting that the legislation must have ‘due regard’ for both domestic and international law. Moreover, it is worth noting that the Conservatives do not have the majority in the Lords; a factor which is likely to further delay progression.
Despite the ongoing ping pong of the Bill between Houses, and it remaining stuck in parliamentary limbo, the Government seemingly had a minor breakthrough when it came to the issue of hotels being used for asylum seekers – a solution that was costing around £8.2 million per day to maintain. The Government announced that by the end of March, the reliance on hotels would be diminished, with 100 hotels being closed for asylum accommodation and reopening back to their normal use. Regardless of this, one day later, No. 10 declared a ‘migration emergency’ following the busiest day of Channel crossings since the start of 2024.
Response to the Bill and public sentiment
Despite the Bill passing its Third Reading with a majority of 44 in the Commons, it has long been apparent that the other parties are not in favour of the Bill as it stands. Labour has repeatedly demanded an impact assessment on the costs of the scheme, and the SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has accused Sunak of seeking to ‘weaponise some of the most vulnerable’.
Apprehension towards the Bill has spread outside of the Westminster bubble, with 270 charities and expert organisations issuing a joint statement calling on Peers to reject the legislation, deeming it ‘deeply harmful’ and arguing that it ‘threatens the universality of human rights and is likely in breach of international law’. The lack of confidence in the functionality of the Bill is also felt amongst the public, with a recent poll by YouGov revealing that only 1% of voters believe that the Bill will stop the boats. Furthermore, another YouGov poll found that on the issue of immigration, only 10% of the public said the Government were handling immigration ‘well’, and 83% said they were handling it ‘badly’.
Context with other issues affecting voting intention
At the start of the year, the Centre for Progressive Policy’s (CPP) recent Local Economy Tracker revealed a widespread pessimism about the future of local economies – perhaps to be expected, considering that several local authorities have issued section 114 bankruptcy notices last year. A lack of affordable housing was also mentioned as an area of concern by 31% of respondents, and 25% mentioned concerns around poor wages or lack of good jobs.
At the end of February, the latest Ipsos Political Monitor not only revealed the Conservatives have the lowest percentage of voting intention since 1978, but also deduced that asylum and immigration were among the most important issues for voters. However, it is important to note that issues relating to the NHS, inflation and the economy ranked higher than immigration and asylum policy matters here. The NHS being number one priority for voters was also echoed in an article from The Guardian at around this time.
Threat of Reform UK
On 11 March, ex-Conservative Party deputy chairman Lee Anderson defected to Reform UK after refusing to apologise for claiming that Islamists had control over London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Following his move, Anderson took to X (formerly Twitter) where he provided his reasons for the move. Anderson said he believes in ‘protecting our borders and keeping immigration to a minimum’ and that ‘illegal migrants should be removed the same day they arrive here’. At around this time Anderson also took a leaf out of Farage’s book and said ‘I want our country back’. Considering that Anderson already resigned from his position within the party due to disagreement over the content of the Bill. His decision to leave the Conservatives could also be partly due to this.
Reform UK is a party founded by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage as the ‘Brexit Party’ in 2018. The party was re-registered as Reform UK in January 2021 and Richard Tice replaced Farage as he stepped down. With Reform’s slogan being ‘Let’s Make Britain Great’ and with its hard line on immigration, it has long been compared to, or deemed similar in tone to, the approach and policies of Donald Trump.
Given that immigration is currently one of the bigger challenges facing Sunak, it seems likely that Reform UK could prove a realistic threat to the Conservatives, but also Sunak’s credibility. It is also worth noting that its predecessor, the Brexit Party did not stand candidates against sitting Conservative MPs in 2019 due to an agreement with the then Conservative leader, Boris Johnson. Thus, with Reform UK candidates standing in every seat they offer an option to voters that didn’t exist in 2019.
Alongside this, recent YouGov polling found that in terms of voting intention, Labour is leading with 47 points, the Conservatives have 20 points, and Reform UK is polling not far short of the Conservatives with 13 points. Given that the same data taken in the middle of March last year saw Reform with just six points and the Conservatives with 27 points, the current ruling party are right to be concerned about where support is going, and for what reasons. In addition to this, the number of Conservative MPs standing down is the highest ahead of any General Election since 1997, with 63 announcing they are either not seeking re-election in the current constituency or standing down from Parliament.
Possible impacts of the Rwanda Bill
Since the introduction of the Rwanda Bill, unity within Sunak’s party has diminished and polling has shown a consistent decrease in support for the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Reform UK has taken advantage of Sunak’s inability to convince his party, Parliament and the voters that this Bill will work, and are set to take votes from the Conservatives. However, it is also key to remember that polling has suggested that immigration and asylum policy are not the biggest issues facing voters at this time, and with issues relating to the NHS, inflation and the economy ranking higher in priority for voters it is clear to see a discrepancy exists here between the public’s priority concerns and the current concerns facing the Conservatives.
Despite this, it is wise to be apprehensive about the Rwanda Bill and the Government’s current stance on immigration policy for several reasons of principle:
(1) The Supreme Court unanimously held that Rwanda was not a safe country to which asylum seekers should be relocated – the Bill is extreme in that it directly challenges a very clear ruling of this.
(2) While the Bill seeks to disapply certain human rights obligations in domestic proceedings, it does not alter the fact that the UK still has obligations here under international law.
(3) It is fair to argue that this idea of limiting or de-legitimising the role of such courts is often associated with authoritarian governments and can be criticised for undermining concepts such as judicial independence and the separation of powers.
Vuelio Political Monitoring gives you full visibility of everything that’s happening across Government, Parliament, stakeholder organisations and social media, delivered in a way that works for you – find out more.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Rwanda-Bill-Point-of-Order.jpg416736Ellie Farrow/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngEllie Farrow2024-04-08 10:42:072024-04-08 10:43:45Point of Order: Will the Rwanda Bill ruin Conservative General Election hopes?
Vuelio was proud to be a sponsor of last week’s Women in Trade Associations Powerlist reception, celebrating the accomplishments of women making a difference throughout the sector.
Those acknowledged by the TAF, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), and the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)’s powerlist were invited to this celebratory event at Space14.
‘What I am struck by is what an incredible opportunity we have in this room, with the most inspirational and powerful women in associations,’ said TAF CEO Emily Wallace.
‘There’s a real challenge for trade associations to support female entrepreneurs and female-led businesses. Let this be the start of something. What more we can do to become more powerful advocates for women in business in the UK and support ambitions for growth?’
WineGB CEO and head judge for the powerlist Nicola Bates highlighted the importance of gender balance within organisations, acknowledging that ‘we still have a huge amount to do in the industry’.
She also took a moment to highlight the work of previous generations of women:
‘On the personal side, I really want you to think about the woman who helped you the most in your life. She might be someone in your family, she might not. I believe we stand on the shoulders of giants.
‘We’re so fortunate to be born at this point, we’re so fortunate to be working in this country, in the West, at this time. There are so many problems in terms of women’s rights, and we happen to be here and able to advocate for our sectors.
‘Fifty years ago, this room would not be full.’
Ayesha Patel, sector policy lead (domestic and international) at the Department for Business and Trade and judge for the TAF Awards, paid tribute to the hard work of everyone gathered in the room:
‘Not only does this event, and this list, shine a light on your extraordinary leadership, but also on the job that you do in representing your industries and sectors, as well as engaging with us in Government in the most invaluable and constructive way.
‘As a woman, may I also thank you for setting such a strong example of leadership, tenacity, and integrity for all of us, particularly in the most challenging circumstances and environments when the work is never, ever done. We all know the importance of representation, role models, and advocacy, so congratulations to all of you, and thank you for all that you do.’
Emelia Quist, head of policy research at the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) spoke about the most positive parts of her job:
‘One of the things that I have to do in my role is look at survey data and see what women-led businesses are doing, and I also get to meet our members. It gives me energy to be in a room with women and drive policy change. I’m really glad to be here this evening, getting to meet so many wonderful people.’
‘We know how impactful trade association members can be, to drive policy change, to offer advice and support directly to businesses, and to overcome challenges, and seize opportunities – whether that’s meeting net zero targets, or meeting societal challenges in your particular sectors,’ said Liz Banks, campaigns & communications director for the Confederation of Business Industry (CBI).
‘Among the applications there were so many inspiring stories of real impact and ambition – folks rolling up their sleeves, not accepting the status quo, and getting things done.
‘On behalf of CBI and TA, thank you for creating this opportunity to celebrate all these women.’
Check out the full Women in Trade Associations Powerlist 2024 here.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Powerlist-featured-image.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-03-18 17:23:572024-03-18 17:24:56Celebrating powerful women in trade associations 2024
Is your organisation prepared to handle the top global risks predicted for 2024?
From the far-reaching impacts of geo-politcal conflicts, the threats of misinformation, or values-based mismatches between audiences, the possible sources of future problems are numerous. But they can be planned for.
Read on for ways to get internal stakeholders onboard and how to bring international teams together.
How do you educate the leaders of an organisation about their roles in crisis comms planning?
Crisis response is part of any leader’s role. Planning, training, and regular testing for key management team members should be part of an organisation’s risk preparedness. The frequency of these activities depends on the organisation’s operational context.
Horizon scanning is a helpful tool to alert management to the range of risks around an organisation.
How do you manage risk in an environment where there is a high level of staff turnover?
An organisation’s governance should include a risk register and a robust training programme. These safeguards protect the organisation from operational issues such as staff turnover.
What are key observations on the dovetail between operational and reputational risk?
The nature of operational risk within an organisation should be well understood. Areas of crisis preparedness and response will typically be led and managed by operational teams. Reputational risk is more dynamic and depends on the operational context and markets in which an organisation operates. It should be reviewed frequently as part of the analysis for a risk register.
What advice do you have for helping global teams respond to crises and keeping teams joined up?
The robust capability of the corporate communications function to respond to issues and crises as part of an integrated organisational response is a legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic. Communications teams tested crisis plans and their execution in terms of technology, media, and processes.
How can you mitigate risk for organisations that are dealing with issues that have the potential to polarise stakeholders?
This is a critical contemporary issue for corporate communication and management teams. Political and societal issues must be balanced with business imperatives and values or purpose-driven leadership. We’ve developed a decision-making framework to support this activity.
Do you have a recommendation to manage a crisis simulation within a comms team?
We work with Polpeo, a UK crisis simulation company led by Kate Hartley. Its virtual environment can simulate a full-blown crisis in a safe setting. Polpeo combines technology and expert practitioners to train and test a corporate communications or management team.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/How-to-navigate-the-storm-of-crisis.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-03-18 15:02:442024-03-18 15:02:44How to navigate the storm of a PR crisis
It’s impossible to plan for every future crisis, but having a comms plan in place is a must-have for every organisation in the current climate.
To help with this, we teamed up with Wadds Inc. founder and managing partner Stephen Waddington for the webinar ‘Preparing for the unexpected – redefining communications strategy’.
Stephen shared the lowdown on risks you need to know about this year, how to identify potential problems sources, and how to prepare for what’s ahead.
If you missed it, don’t fret – here are some of the key points covered:
Risk has changed – here’s how to keep up
2024 has already been an eventful year, and the tried and tested comms plans of the past need to be updated – it’s time to adapt with the changing world PR communicates with:
‘We are operating in a complex geopolitical environmental and societal perspective,’ said Stephen.
‘Organisations have had to humanise how they communicate with the public as a collective response to COVID-19. Initially, this was related to mental health and wellbeing, and then the wider societal context, including Black Lives Matter and Roe vs Wade. Three years on, this has resulted in a new area of crisis.’
‘Risk registers, heat maps, and risk appetite statements are essential for any organisation. But they are also only the start…’
Responding to crisis
The three tenets at the core of any crisis response according to Stephe are monitoring, testing, and then centring your comms:
‘Crisis comes with maining public trust, coordinating a complex stakeholder environment, and holding leadership to account.
‘Preparedness is tested through simulation exercises where we can spot gaps in capability, and we can put teams under pressure to help develop plans. Finally, we can make use of our ability to continually monitor, and horizon-scan’.
‘Media monitoring and social listening tools allow us more than ever to understand the public and social sphere and identify those behaviours around a crisis event’.
Future reading
Stephen highlighted some useful resources to bolster your crisis planning:
For much more on the top risks to plan for this year and beyond, as well as strategies for tackling crises as they unfold, as well as the fallout, check out our white paper.
Want to know more about media monitoring and social listening? Check out solutions from Vuelio and our sister brand Pulsar.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Webinar-write-up.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-03-14 13:03:402024-03-14 13:04:36Are you prepared? It’s time to redefine your crisis communications strategy
How prepared is your organisation for future crises?
A robust crisis comms management strategy can help teams tackle the unexpected.
Our latest white paper with Wadds Inc. founder and managing partner Stephen Waddington explores the changing nature of risk within society and its impact on organisations.
From value-based crises, false or manipulated information, to social polarisation, this report highlights how PR teams are operating in an increasingly complex world of interconnected systems.
Drawing insight from industry experts including Amanda Coleman, Ronke Lawal, and Rod Cartwright, The evolving nature of crisis communications management provides practical guidance on how to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a crisis.
Get your copy and learn:
What top five global risks comms teams need to prepare for
How to build a crisis comms response strategy
Why diversity and representation is vital for an effective comms team
How horizon scanning can help with strategic planning and risk mitigation
Download the report by filling in the form below 👇
This is a post from Michael Kane, Henry Welch, and Helen Stott on the Vuelio Political team.
Years before he became Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt advocated cutting corporation tax by nearly a third in the 2019 Conservative Leadership Election. For a politician viewed primarily as a safe pair of hands- particularly significant given he has been a frontline political figure since 2005 – this leadership campaign perhaps represents the best read into Hunt’s personal and moral priorities. Fast forward to 2024, and Hunt has delivered his second Spring Budget – a year and a half on from his initial appointment as Chancellor to be that safe pair of hands.
While the Government’s focus on tax cuts in the Spring Budget might be intuitive given Hunt’s policy platform in 2019, it’s also borne out of external factors, with the Conservative’s needing something to overturn a 20-plus poll gap to Labour. It could be a move to differentiate the Conservatives and expose Labour’s perceived weakness on tax and spend – a defensively reactive and politicalised budget given the impending General Election. Testament to this, the Civil Service transcript of Hunt’s address to Parliament removed ‘political content’ 27 times.
Nevertheless, while Hunt’s Budget may set up some attack lines for a future General Election, it leaves the Conservatives exposed due to its apparent failure to energise their base and its implications for struggling Local Government and wider public services. Altogether, there is some reasonable doubt over whether this actually changes anything.
A General Election budget?
With a General Election looming, it might be expected that the Government’s Budget will focus on pre-empting moves from the Opposition. Significantly, the Conservatives moved to adopt several of Labour’s tax raising policies, such as reforming the non-dom status and extending the Windfall tax on oil and gas. The Conservatives may have joked that Labour were using the ‘non-dom tax’ to fund all of its new public spending, but now the party will not have a chance and has been forced to fund reforms through ‘future savings’. Instead, this money was used to cut National Insurance (NI). This could be seen as a progressive move, with NI only affecting working people, moreover, this focus on cutting personal taxes is in sharp contrast to Conservative Governments of recent years. Labour has so far said it will keep the reduction in NI, and any attempt to increase it within its first term of government would likely be deeply unpopular. But this leaves Labour with the problem of how to improve public services (or at least stop them from continually declining) while having decreased tax revenues.
However, the Government did not stop there as through the Spring Budget, the Conservatives established NI as a clear dividing line against Labour. With a pledge to scrap the ‘double taxation’ of NI and income tax, the Conservatives put the ball firmly in Labour’s court. Labour may have supported the move to cut the tax last week, but is not willing to be drawn into the Government’s plan to abolish it completely. Labour has instead accused Sunak of parroting his predecessor Liz Truss with an unfunded commitment that would cost £46bn a year. Labour’s point may prove an
economically prudent position with Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), saying Hunt’s pledge is ‘not worth the paper it’s written on’ while it is not funded. However, a key question could be, will the Government’s message of tax cuts speak to voters during the election campaign – especially given that Labour’s financial policies receive a significant amount more scrutiny than the Conservative’s during an election period.
When speaking about the economy, it is important to remember that Government finances do not work the same way as household finances (an analogy that Labour was criticised for earlier this week) – and the way that politicians talk about money should not always be interpreted literally. For example, conversations about tax and spend – particularly over the past six months – have been dominated by the notion of ‘fiscal headroom’, but in reality this is quite an abstract and complicated idea. Headroom is the amount the Government is able to spend and still theoretically meet its fiscal rule – to have debt falling as a percentage of GDP by the end of five years – according to OBR forecasts. Nonetheless, the Government’s fiscal rules are not concrete economic laws, but are self-imposed and somewhat arbitrary. Much like prior to 1997, Labour have decided to follow these arbitrary rules in an appeal to be seen as the stable party of business. This leaves the Conservatives in the position where they can almost dictate aspects of Labour policy by using as much of the ‘headroom’ as possible.
Failing to energise the base
The last fiscal event prior to a General Election is normally seen as a way to rally the supporter base and ensure core voters get out knocking doors. There is no guarantee that this Spring Budget will constitute the last fiscal event before the election but everything the Government does now will be scrutinised with a future GE in sight. With this in mind, at this Budget the Government had to juggle sound economical and political moves. This is due to the precarious economic position of the country, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting 0.8% growth for 2024 and growth not set to surpass 2% in the next five years.
This meant that Hunt and the Conservatives have been constrained in their attempt to vitalise their base, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK all lurking. Some in the Conservative Party were upset that there was not more done to target core Conservative voters, with tax cuts aimed at workers rather than pensioners – for instance, this is best encapsulated by the lack of focus on income tax or inheritance tax. Additionally, the move to abolish the preferential tax regime for Furnished Holiday Lets may also be unpopular with richer Conservative voters in the South West and South East of England. This may lead to future issues with members and supporters out door knocking and the Conservative’s will be keeping a keen eye on this at May’s local elections.
Public services and Local Government
A major question at the election will be a simple one: do people feel better off after 14 years of Conservative rule? The decline of British public services over the last decade, from overcrowded prisons to record NHS waiting lists, may give a simple answer. The importance of public sector improvements was hammered home by pre-Budget polling with YouGov finding that 57% to 27% of respondents prioritise public spending over cutting taxes
Many will be disappointed that the Chancellor has effectively paid for tax cuts in the present by pencilling in public spending cuts for after a General Election, as pointed out by economists. The IFS estimates that sticking to current spending plans would require cuts of around 3.3% a year to unprotected services (such as courts, prisons, and Local Government), which will be extremely difficult after over a decade of austerity. This has left a future Government in a very difficult position with these planned cuts prompting IFS director Paul Johnson to accuse both the Conservatives and Labour of a ‘conspiracy of silence’ around the scale of challenges facing the country after the election.
One area that is particularly struggling is Local Government, which provides some of the most vital frontline services; such as social care, housing, and education. This past year has seen a slew of local councils declaring effective bankruptcy, and analysis shows that over a third of local councils could go bankrupt in the next five years unless they make serious cuts. Last week saw Birmingham City Council make the unprecedented decision to raise council tax by 21% over the next two years – which is normally not permitted without a public referendum. The Government has, to a certain extent, been able to shift blame for the crisis in Local Government, as analysis shows that cuts have hit Labour-run councils the hardest. The Conservatives have been able to point to other other factors such as corruption and financial incompetence. Nonetheless, Labour will be unable to position itself this way, and will have to reach a sustainable funding settlement for Local Government, or risk serious disillusionment from voters forced to pay higher taxes for declining public services. In this regard, the challenges faced by Local Government and wider public services are challenges that cannot be avoided by both parties either.
Political implications
With a General Election at most ten months away, the important question is has this actually made any difference for the Conservatives? One of the takeaways may be clarity around the date of the election. Prior to the Budget, in a move that was probably more politicking rather than sincere, Labour Shadow Minister Jonathan Ashworth bet on live TV that there would be a Spring election. Nonetheless, following a disappointing reaction to measures announced, and no significant positive movement in the polling, many Conservative MPs now believe that there will be an Autumn election.
The immediate reaction to the Budget has been very bad for the Government. An Opinium poll has found that the Conservatives have dropped two points since the Budget, while 31% of respondents said they believed taxes had gone up despite the NI cut, with just 17% believing they had gone down. While perhaps less scientific, a huge 93% of respondents on the Daily Express’ post Budget poll have said they do not believe it will leave them better off. YouGov highlights that although many are in favour of the big announcements at the Budget, more people believe that it was unfair, unaffordable, and will leave the country and families worse off. Significantly, the public preferred Labour’s policy on the non-dom status by 52% to 21%, indicating the population’s concerns around public services.
This is where there may be a disconnect between current Government policy and voter’s priorities. When the Conservatives were elected in 2010 and in 2015, the country was arguably willing to stomach a period of austerity in the belief that a previous Government had overspent. The election of Boris Johnson and his big spending, levelling-up agenda signified the end of this period and therefore, there is some doubt over whether Hunt’s moves to cut spending to fund tax cuts will speak to the concerns of voters.
With this the ‘greatest tax-raising Parliament since the Second World War’ and 75% of councils expecting to introduce the maximum increase of Council Tax, Westminster might be forgiven for thinking that the Conservatives are shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic.
Vuelio teamed up with the Trade Association Forum (TAF) for a Spring Budget Briefing at Space14 the day after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s announcement to discuss its impact on businesses and also the next General Election.
Hosted by TAF’s CEO Emily Wallace, our panel included (pictured from left to right):
Craig Beaumont, chief of external affairs, (FSB) Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)
Kelly Scott, VP of Account Management, Vuelio
George Dibb, associate director for economic policy and head of the Centre for Economic Justice, The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR)
Kevin Schofield, political editor, HuffPost
Extra insight on polling data was shared by polling and research expert Andrew Hawkins, CEO of Whitestone Insight.
Before we get into the panel’s thoughts on the specifics of the announcement – let’s get to the question many will have been asking…
Will the Spring Budget have helped the Conservative Party’s prospects for the next General Election?
Not really, was the feeling of the panel, as well as the general mood of the audience in the room. This echoed how many of the UK’s major press outlets covered Hunt’s Spring Budget, with panelist Kevin Schofield summing it up as ‘boring’ in his reporting.
Pollster Andrew Hawkins reinforced this reaction:
‘Was yesterday’s event ever going to be a game changer? No. This was not a blockbuster.’
Andrew added that a decision to hold the General Election in May would be ‘political self-immolation’ on the part of the Tories:
‘There’s a bigger hill to climb for Labour. But climb it I believe they will.’
Referring to past voters who would pick the Liberal Democrats if unswayed by the Conservatives or Labour, Andrew shared the belief ‘that model is breaking down,’ with Reform and Green likely to scoop those votes up.
The decreasing level of under-45s planning to vote Conservative was characterised by Andrew as an ‘existential threat’ to the party, adding his view that ‘in a generation, they will be redundant’.
What did the Chancellor forget? The workforce
REC’s Shazia Ejaz felt that there wasn’t a ‘clear enough arrowhead on growth’ – especially when it came to the vital role of skill development.
‘We believe that central to any growth is people – workers. There wasn’t very much said on skills. There needs to be more investment.’
‘Context to consider is that we’ve had a really resilient labour market given the pandemic. There was a demand for people that kept employers hiring – that has tailed off.’
George added to the viewpoint that workers themselves weren’t centred in Hunt’s announcements on public sector performance. The Chancellor confirmed investment in AI to improve efficacy in public services, including the NHS, and that cuts would also boost performance.
‘I think it’s magic thinking that cutting budgets will improve performance – the low-hanging fruit of public sector cuts is already gone.’
‘We remember the last time the Government tried to do that,’ added Shazia on investment in technologies. ‘These things aren’t easy to do, and they cost more money’.
Craig countered that the Government’s plans could work in some sectors: ‘The civil service has only gotten bigger and bigger. Without taking these kinds of decisions, you get inertia.’
The mood in the journalist lobby?
HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield shared more on what happens at the post-announcement ‘huddle’, calling the process this year ‘quite dull’ compared to times before social media.
‘I’m old enough to remember when coverage wasn’t taken over by Twitter.
‘It was mostly pre-briefed this year – there was nothing for the Chancellor to announce that we didn’t know.’
‘It was a rambling, ill-judged speech, I thought.’
Vuelio’s Kelly Scott tackled the influence of new media during this election cycle – namely, GB News.
‘Left-wing media tended to dominate the online conversation after the Budget, but we did see a rise for GB News. It’s seen as an untrusted news source, but had an important part in the conversation regardless.’
Kelly talked through Hunt’s careful acknowledgement of stakeholders, counting 12 name-checks – ‘along with some bizarre ones – Idris Elba, Keira Knightley? The arts stakeholders were gushing’.
Away from Hollywood and back towards day to day challenges in the UK, stakeholders were less excited – particularly those working in the anti-poverty sector:
‘The anti-poverty community mentioned by Hunt came out firmly that the packages there to “help” were just more sticking plasters’.
Craig backed this up: ‘We are positive about some of the specifics, but we are not gushing’.
What happens next?
Despite the pre-Budget feeling that this would likely be the last fiscal event before the coming General Election, some on the panel believed there could be more to come.
‘I think there will be two events,’ said Craig.
‘Take special care with planning your summer holidays,’ added Kevin.
Get a full summary of the Spring Budget 2024, including stakeholder reaction, in this downloadable report from the Vuelio Political team.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Spring-Budget-Briefing.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-03-12 12:31:412024-03-12 12:58:53Spring Budget Briefing: Will Hunt’s ‘boring budget’ make an impact?
Written and compiled by Phoebe-Jane Boyd, Dahye Lee, and Sal Morton.
With a potential UK General Election on the way, and the fortunes of the ruling party dwindling, yesterday’s Spring Budget from the Conservatives faced close scrutiny. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was under particular pressure to deliver from his own party, his rival MPs, and – of course – the UK press and public.
Using data from our sister social listening platform Pulsar from Wednesday 6th March 12:30pm to 4pm following the Budget reveal, here is an overview of press coverage and online conversation around Hunt’s statement.
Hunt’s delivery itself contained plenty of surprises for the journalists covering it as well as the people watching from home. Reports this afternoon included the repeated reprimands for rowdiness from Deputy Speaker Dame Eleanor Laing, and Hunt’s jibes towards Starmer & co., sitting opposite.
Of the Spring Budget content, media attention yesterday afternoon went to the widely-expected 2p cut to National Insurance, axing of ‘non-dom’ tax rules, the new levy on vaping, an extra £100 million for the Northern Ireland Executive, the launch of a British ISA, an extension to childcare cost help, and Hunt’s claim that UK growth is higher than every large European economy.
On top for driving the Spring Budget conversation was The Guardian, followed by the Mirror and City A.M.. Surprisingly, broadcasters Sky News and BBC’s live coverage didn’t spark as much reaction from those following along. Also interesting – the Manchester Evening News sparking more conversation than UK-wide outlets the Financial Times, The Times, and the Evening Standard.
Audience reaction on social media
Analysing the top 15 topics spoken about in relation to the Spring Budget reveals a focus on both National Insurance and Recession/Inflation, which account for 12% and 10% of the share of conversation respectively.
The Chancellor’s decision to cut NI, saving the average worker £450, has unsurprisingly sprung ahead in conversation. However, despite these savings, many individuals are skeptical about the intentions behind the changes.
The upcoming General Election is an underlying theme in the biggest topics in the conversation, with many trying to suss out Sunak and Hunt’s game plan going forward.
When we collate all topics and break them down by category, categories related to the economy and finance stand out more prominently – not surprising given the Budget’s focus on reducing personal & corporate taxes.
Work and Pensions account for over a quarter of the conversation (26%), followed by discussions on Recession and Healthcare, which take shares of voice of 14% and 13% respectively.
Hunt’s emphasis on lower taxes prompted more public discussion on how it will affect taxation for working people and potentially exacerbate the UK’s economic downturn. Although the Budget prioritises increased investment in technology and energy, public interest remains largely centred on the impact of personal taxes.
Many negative reactions come in the Healthcare conversation, where £3.4bn has been allocated for a ‘productivity plan’ that includes IT system updates – this is met with scepticism following the so-called ‘dodgy deals’ during COVID-19 involving Track & Trace funding. Positive but muted reactions come in the area of TV, film, and theatre funding – the surprise announcement is yet to make a huge conversational impact, likely as target audiences weren’t primed for this announcement. The UK arts industry has long been asking for increased funding, with 2020’s ‘Rethink. Reskill. Reboot.’ campaign leaving many communities fearing that the Conservative Party had no faith in arts and culture.
We measured which news outlets posted the most about the budget following the announcement, with The Guardian as standing out as the most influential outlet in the Spring Budget conversation. One of the liberal paper’s most-engaged articles by Rafael Behr has ignited public discourse on how this Budget might impact the upcoming General Election.
Left-leaning tabloid The Mirror takes second place, largely due to its coverage of Sir Keir Starmer’s statement, in which the Labour leader criticised Jeremy Hunt’s Budget as a ‘last desperate act,’ while also pressing for a General Election date.
Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Spring Budget on 6 March, which may be the last fiscal event announced before a General Election.
With the Chancellor facing pressure to cut taxes to help improve the Government’s poll ratings and appease the right of his party, the Budget is a crucial political moment. Whilst speculation about cuts to income tax, national insurance and inheritance tax all continue to swirl, the state of public finances remain challenging and all eyes will be on just what Jeremy Hunt has up his sleeve.
We’ve partnered with the Trade Association Forum (TAF) to help you analyse the announcements and what they mean for the year ahead.
Join us at 8:30 am on Thursday 7 March 2024, for our Spring Budget Briefing at Space14, where our panel will discuss what was unveiled in the budget and its potential impact on businesses and individuals, and what this might mean for the upcoming General Election.
Driving the discussion will be our chair Emily Wallace, interim CEO at TAF and panelists:
– Kevin Schofield, political editor, HuffPost – Craig Beaumont, chief of external affairs, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) – Shazia Ejaz, campaigns director, Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) – Kelly Scott, VP account management, Vuelio
Doors open at 8:00 am at 14 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3JA, with the event kicking off at 8:30am. Breakfast and refreshments will be provided.
Last Wednesday Connected Places Catapult hosted a bustling event in the House of Lords. The event, hosted by Lord Erroll, worked to launch the new report: ‘The Art of the Possible in Public Procurement’, developed by the Innovation Procurement Empowerment Centre (IPEC).
IPEC is run by Catapult in combination with the University of Birmingham and University of Manchester.
The speakers focused on both the importance of public procurement and the challenges it faces. Moreover, there was a focus on mobilising and exploiting the Procurement Act, which one speaker argued represented a lot of flexibility. Additionally, the contributors also noted the success of the Welsh Authorities in exploiting public procurement.
Altogether the night may have been best summed up when a contributor noted that although ‘procurement isn’t the sexiest’, it is vital to ensure that countries’ institutions run correctly.
Beyond the event last Wednesday, The Art of the Possible in Public Procurement report neatly summarised the five possibilities of procurement into; unlocking transformative power, exploiting rules as enables; exploiting the competitive flexible procedure; innovation everywhere and building a sharing community.
Here is a breakdown of these several key conclusions:
Firstly, although driving innovation through procurement was a key policy in the 2023 Procurement Act, this will not be achieved unless there is a drive to implement and deliver the potential of reforms.
Innovation ambitions often collide with constrained public finance and resourcing.
Procurement is too often seen as an administrative and legally-driven process where it should be instead used as a strategic lever. Procurement can be an empowering process and allow public sector leaders to achieve their targets on health and environmental challenges. It needs to be embraced in this manner.
Procurement needs to be integrated into innovation and business development strategies. It also needs to be linked with strategic planning. Within this, the National Procurement Policy Statement needs to be taken seriously and strategy teams should review this as a starting point for their procurement journey,
Social value delivery needs to be more closely integrated into the desired outcomes of the procurement.
Throughout the report numerous case studies were utilised to illustrate the points in hand; this ranged from Leicestershire’s Children Services to Freightlab to the London Housing Consortium.
The report also detailed the need for a mindset shift over procurement. Specifically, all procurements have the potential to generate a new idea and economic activity; we need to look beyond them as purely transactional.
Finally, the report had a strong localism focus. It was about illustrating local organisations just as much as national organisations can fulfil the potentials of procurement to instigate local change. This is especially relevant given the levelling up agenda of the last half a decade.
Moving forward into 2024 and a General Election year, events and reports like this will be vital to ensure that effective public procurement is a top priority for the next Government.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Procurement-report.jpg430760Michael Kane and Henry Welch/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngMichael Kane and Henry Welch2024-01-23 16:23:422024-01-23 16:23:42Connected Places Catapult launches report 'The Art of the Possible in Public Procurement'
With a General Election at most 12 months away, and potentially as soon as May, any information about the composition of the next Parliament is essential for public affairs work and campaigning.
This is why the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) polling from YouGov released by The Telegraph this week has made an immediate splash.
MRP polling is a way to use large samples to predict public opinion at a more granular, constituency level. People vote based on multiple characteristics, such as age, gender, and occupation. This specific combination of characteristics is rare, but the individual characteristics are shared by many. MRP polling looks at each criteria to get an idea of how different groups will vote. It can then calculate probabilities of a specific type of person to vote in one way and using datasets is able to import this to specific constituency demographics.
This specific MRP found that if an election was held today, Labour would win a 120 seat majority and the Conservatives would slump to just 169 seats. It predicted significant Liberal Democrat gains, to 48, and that the SNP seat share would nearly halve to just 25 seats. Significant casualties for the Conservatives would be Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, and rightwing firebrand and recent returner to the backbenches, Lee Anderson.
Remarkably, the reaction from the top echelon of the major parties was very similar. In a Whatsapp to Labour MPs, the Party warned of complacency, with Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer encouraging members, activists, and MPs to campaign like they were five points behind. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
However, it is too simple to look at this poll at face value.
Firstly, there are immediate concerns about who funded it, with suspicions arising when Lord Frost was quoted in The Telegraph article saying the only way to avoid the results was ‘to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs’. It turns out the MRP polling was funded by the Conservative British Alliance, an organisation without even a website. Speaking to Politico, polling expert Lord Hayward noted his suspicion of polls funded by less than transparent organisations.
Secondly, YouGov itself called into question much of The Telegraph’s analysis of the results. It dismissed claims that Labour’s support was only up an average of 4% across the country, saying the headline vote intention showed Labour to be at 39.5% and the Conservatives 26%. YouGov also distanced itself from the claim that there could be a hung parliament if Reform UK did not stand. In fact, a YouGov poll in October 2023 found that only 31% of Reform UK voters said that they would vote Conservative if a Reform candidate did not stand.
There are also greater questions about the effectiveness of MRP polling.
President of the Liberal Democrats Mark Pack argues that MRP polling is not specific enough to deal with some extreme individual circumstances and MRP performs far better when there are greater variations between constituencies.
Polling expert Peter Kellner takes this on further with his explanation of the defects of MRP. Kellner explains that MRP polling uses an essentially proportional model which means that the more a party wins locally in one election, the more it risks in the next one. This means that when the Government loses a significant chunk of support, MRP polls predict many more seat losses than polls that use uniform national swing (UNS), the other main way to gain polling data.
Kellner argues that often the pattern of swings in Britain is closer to UNS than proportional drops. Kellner breaks swing voters into ‘grumblers’ and ‘defectors’. Grumblers are more likely to show dissent in by-election and mid-term elections, while ‘defectors’ are those who determine a General Election result as they are willing to abandon the party in Government. This phenomenon has led to by-election defeats, with former Conservative strongholds evidently having a lot of grumblers, and leads to MRP polling leading to the Conservatives losing seats which they have large majorities in. However, Kellner argues that defectors tend to often have weaker loyalties and can likely be influenced by events, and believes that UNS is a better way to measure ‘defector’ numbers while MRP can predict by-election results. Kellner thus predicts that Labour’s lead is likely to narrow in the polls as the election approaches due to voter behaviour change, as people are no longer ‘grumblers’ but have to decide what their future Government is.
If Kellner is correct, the MRP polling from this week may be less impactful than much of the media is presenting. Significantly, 17.5% of voters in another recent YouGov poll, did not know who they would vote for at the next election. Previous studies have found that undecided Conservatives still lean towards the Party and it is also likely that the Reform UK vote will decrease once an election is called. Perhaps Starmer’s caution and Sunak’s optimism are not uncalled for.
Altogether, although the MRP polling is insightful, it is important to remember its source and that polling can not always be taken at face value. Just ask Neil Kinnock after 1992 or Theresa May in 2017.
Are you making a difference with your PR? If you’ve considered teaming up with local charities, collaborating with community groups, or fancy taking on pro-bono work – 2024 is your year to start.
‘The times are calling for bold, brave action [and] authentic, purpose-led communications is the way forward,’ said PRCA Global Ethics Council co-chair Nitin Mantri as part of the group’s 2022 annual perspective. Cause-led comms have become even more important since, highlighted as a key trend in our round-up of industry predictions for the year ahead.
‘These days consumers are far more savvy when it comes to where they are spending their money and publications sometimes have a quota to cover a certain amount of sustainably responsible brands,’ said Francesca Cullen and Rosie Lees, co-founders and directors of Nineteen94 Communications Agency.
‘This leaves a really big opportunity for purpose-driven brands to succeed.’
Not sure where to begin? Our new white paper ‘Paying it forward with your PR’ offers pointers for building purpose-driven campaigns into your comms plan for 2024.
Download the paper to learn from experts in social impact PR working across different sectors, including:
– Full Fat account director Clara Pérez Miñones and partner Paul Joseph on becoming a pro at pro-bono
– Little Red PR CEO Victoria Ruffy on the benefits of becoming a B Corp brand
– Sefton Council communications officer Ollie Cowan on ensuring unprepared voters won’t get turned away at the polling station
– The Royal National Institute of Blind People’s Lindsay Coyle and Gorki Duhra and the Commission for Victims and Survivors for Northern Ireland’s head of communications and PR Alana Fisher on fighting for legislation change
‘Paying it forward with your PR’ can be downloaded here.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Why-2024-is-the-year-to-start-paying-it-forward-with-your-PR.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-01-17 17:15:122024-01-17 17:15:12White paper: Why 2024 is the time to start paying it forward with your PR
Want to speak up for your community in Parliament and in the press? Take note from the Royal National Institute of Blind People (RNIB), which successfully campaigned to overturn the UK Government’s proposal to close almost all ticket offices across England and Glasgow Central last year.
As part of our webinar ‘Empowering communities through advocacy campaigns’, the RNIB’s local campaigns manager Lindsay Coyle shared extra advice on making an impact and what happens after a cabinet reshuffle…
What was the most impactful and the least useful part of your campaigns?
I think for us the most impactful was social media. Just having people be able to share their own experience of arriving at a station, trying to navigate and use an inaccessible ticket vending machine seemed to get a lot of traction. RMT were retweeting us, too.
Thank you to everyone for sharing your #INeedATicketOffice so I can… stories.
We’ve shared them with Secretary of State for Transport, @Mark_J_Harper, and will continue to share your concerns so keep them coming.
Similarly, having people talk about why they use ticket offices and being able to compile that and share as a video was great. Equally, having people write to their MP – at the Westminster Hall debate, MPs were reading out the experiences of blind and partially sighted people and we managed to reach 9 out of 10 MPs, which was pretty awesome.
Least impactful – we did try and engage with Conservative MPs who had spoken out against this but we didn’t have a lot of success with that.
How can a charity successfully campaign on the issues they are passionate about?
As an organisation, we have a very good reputation with MPs at Westminster level, backed up by polling. We are seen as a credible and trusted source of information so it’s about not doing anything that may be a detriment to that but equally being able to build allies where you can. That is possibly the reason why we were able to secure a meeting with Shadow Secretary of State for Transport Louise Haigh.
I also think it is hugely important to engage both direct beneficiaries as well as the wider public in your work. To empower individuals affected by an issue so they have the confidence and tools to make change where they wish – not only is it empowering for the individual but it also allows charities to extend their reach so messaging is carried to an even wider audience.
On a wider note, and purely a bit of a personal crusade, I think there is some work to be done around civic engagement. We want people from lower-represented/marginalised groups to be able to fully participate in civic engagement – from being able to vote, through to standing for public office – so councillor, school governor, even an MP. We need wider representation within decision making.
Be social media savvy. Use platforms in an engaging way.
Nothing can replace the power of personal stories so really use those – in the media, online, with MPs, etc.
How does the RNIB team up with other groups for campaigns?
We’re part of a number of different consortia – the Disability Benefits Consortium – who we have worked with to shine a light on the impact of the cost-of-living on disabled people. We are also part of the Disability Charities Consortium, made up of senior reps from the biggest disability charities, We have worked with them on wider issues such as feeding into the Government’s disability strategy.
We are also part of an organisation called Visionary, which is an umbrella body of organisations supporting people with sight loss – so national orgs such as ourselves, Guide Dogs, Glaucoma UK, etc., as well as smaller local sight loss charities. If an issue we are working on affects people with sight loss specifically, such as the availability of vision rehab, then we would work together through Visionary.
Additionally, we may proactively seek to work with other organisations on very specific issues. For example, for the past couple of years, we have been campaigning for improved accessibility of the built environment and have put together a guide called ‘The Key Principles of Inclusive Street Design’ which covers things such as accessible crossings, making consultations accessible. We reached out to other organisations such as Brake, the road safety charity, to ask them to endorse this guide, which they did. This then gives it more weight when we go to local authorities to press for change, as it’s seen as less of a niche issue.
What happens on your teams after a Cabinet reshuffle/times of political unrest?
We have a Public Affairs team who constantly monitor activity at Westminster. Once we know who is in which role, they tend to produce a briefing outlining each person and their background which is shared with relevant colleagues such as Policy and Campaigns, Directors, Trustees. We may then also write to welcome Ministers into their new role, particularly if there is an issue we are currently campaigning on. For example, we are working currently to push for the update to the NHS England Accessible Information Standard to be released (it has been delayed for a while) so we have written to the Health Secretary Victoria Atkins to ask her to do this, as it should be a relatively quick win – for them and us.
We are also proactively preparing for the forthcoming General Election. We are working with an external agency to get us election ready as an organisation with a communications roadmap set up, so the wider work of the organisation can be coordinated, as well as identifying key campaign moments. This will involve coordinating work with PR, policy and campaigns, social media.
We will also be looking at how we can bring our supporters into this work e.g. holding training sessions on what MPs and candidates want in the run up to a General Election. We will also have an organisation-wide manifesto.
For more on cause-led comms and making a difference, read our interview with JustGiving’s director, digital strategy Kathleen Murphy. Want more on UK politics? Sign up to Vuelio’s weekly Point of Order newsletter.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Advocacy-campaigns-RNIB.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2024-01-08 15:29:082024-01-08 15:29:08How the RNIB empowers communities through advocacy campaigns
This is a post from Michael Kane, Henry Welch, Helen Stott, and Alexandra Moran on the Vuelio Political team.
With seven by-elections, numerous Cabinet reshuffles, Nigel Farage in the jungle, the return of David Cameron and Government disapproval ratings flatlining at around 60%, the Vuelio Political team have assessed the various political themes that have shaped the year so far.
Sunak’s pivot to migration
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak started and ended 2023 by asserting the same line on the need to cut illegal and legal migration. In January, Sunak set out his priorities for 2023, one of which was passing new laws to stop small boats and ensure that those who come to Britain illegally are ‘detained and swiftly removed.’ The Illegal Migration Bill was then unveiled in March and granted Royal Assent in July.
After a back and forth with the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, Sunak started December by introducing the Rwanda Bill to overcome their concerns. His press conference on the Bill felt to some like a rehash of prior statements on Illegal Migration from the start of the year, and his speech at Conservative Party Conference emphasised the issue.
This focus on cutting illegal migration was flanked by an attempt to cut legal migration numbers in response to the Office for National Statistics’ reveal in November that the UK’s net migration was 745,000 in 2022. Predictably, there was outrage from Conservative backbenchers and Sunak used this energy to strengthen the border controls, announcing five measures to tackle legal migration. Most significantly, the Government announced that they will increase the earning threshold for overseas workers by nearly 50% from its current position of £26,200 to £38,700. It was later claimed that these changes will stop 300,000 people from entering the UK each year.
Sunak’s increasing focus on cutting migration may be twofold: 1) Energise leave voters and 2019 Conservative voters; and 2) Force Starmer to commit to a position. These reasons are complementary, as by energising leave voters and 2019 Conservative voters it commits Starmer to a position – these voters formed a significant part of Labour’s coalition of voters in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Starmer flirted with the idea of processing illegal migrants abroad in a speech in December 2023, perhaps as a result of this. Sunak’s pivot to migration has highlighted the rhetorical and practical differences between himself and Starmer.
Nevertheless, the viability of this as a political strategy remains dubious for Sunak. While the Rwanda Bill may have passed, it took Sunak’s former Home Secretary, Minister for Immigration, two dozen Conservative backbench abstentions with it and One Nation Conservative MPs threatening to turn against it if the bill is amended. Perhaps then, Sunak’s pivot to migration will only empower the very backbenchers in which his political fate relies upon. Additionally, polling indicates that voters are more concerned with the cost-of-living crisis – will Sunak’s focus on migration risk coming across as tone deaf, as the then-Conservative leader Michael Howard’s pivot to migration had in 2005?
Starmer’s year of probation
Coming into 2023, Keir Starmer’s Labour party stood at around 45% in the opinion polls compared to the Conservatives’ 25/30% – this story is very much the same at the end of year, too. This, coupled with the cumulative momentum of a summer and autumn of by-election gains very much points to Keir Starmer in Downing Street being the result of the next General Election. With this in mind, we can view Starmer’s actions this year through the prism of a probation period with the British Public as his actions pivoted towards those of a Prime Minister in waiting.
Starmer’s pivot to being a Prime Minister in waiting can be seen in his twofold strategy of stability and reassurance. Take Starmer’s moves to resist calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza crisis – this was framed as a move to follow the United States lead on the issue and show that Labour could strategically manage an international crisis; in this regard, a message to voters that they can trust Labour with foreign policy. Although Labour’s position has softened since the October attacks due to internal pressure, Starmer has rarely stepped out of line with the UK and US Government and has even openly said that this is an issue that Labour needs to prove it can govern on. This attempt to lead on foreign issues was foreshadowed by an attempt to weigh in on the Northern Ireland Protocol in a speech to Queen’s University Belfast in early January.
Throughout the year Starmer has consistently broadened his message more and more towards the whole country. The Labour Party Conference setting was draped in the Union Jack to equate Labour with patriotism, while Starmer’s speeches to the British Chambers of Commerce Global Conference in May and the North East Chamber of Commerce in November complemented Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ perennial argument that business need not be scared of Labour.
Furthermore, Starmer’s conference speech represented a strong gesture to Conservative voters. This rhetoric continued in a speech in December as he tried to resonate with those leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019, making even more obvious appeals to the benefits of Brexit. To top this courting, Starmer even praised Margaret Thatcher’s project of ‘meaningful change.’
Nonetheless, these moves have prompted backlash, with some in the Labour Party critiquing Starmer over his comments on Thatcher and the Israel-Gaza crisis. Meanwhile, Labour’s strategy of reassurance perhaps left them hamstrung in a mild response to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement for Growth.
Labour’s limited response to the Autumn Statement perhaps represents the crossroads Starmer faces. While a two-pronged approach of reassurance and stability helped Labour get to the mid-40s in the polls, it will not not help them change the country. It’s not 1997 anymore – Starmer could perhaps benefit by pursuing the very change he has been seen to be scared of confronting.
The SNP’s conundrum
Towards the end of 2022, the then First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon held talks with the then new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, later repeated in January 2023. Among the discussions were the economic and social challenges faced by Scotland but also the prospect of a second independence referendum. After all, it was only in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election that the SNP promised to deliver a referendum, if elected. Nevertheless, just shy of 12 months from the second set of talks, the SNP’s prospects for independence have dramatically diminished.
Spring forward to October 2023, and the SNP held their annual conference – for the first time in years the party proposed a conference debate on how to achieve independence. The elected SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Humza Yousaf warned the party to stop talking about independence and for the debate to draw a line under it. For context, just a year ago, the SNP published its third independence paper and October 2023 had been earmarked by Sturgeon as the time for a second independence referendum.
This comes after months of polling indicating that while support for independence has remained the same, support for the SNP has decreased steadily. This is flanked by internal splits in the SNP made clear for all to see in Kate Forbes’ leadership campaign and the development of the Alba Party, as leadership candidate Ash Regan became its first MSP. While Yousaf may have gained some authority over his handling of the Israel-Gaza crisis, this year perhaps represents a shift in Scottish voters away from the SNP, as polling indicates that SNP and Labour both stand at around the 30-35% level in Scotland. In this sense, voters do not see the SNP as the clear and obvious vehicle for change with Labour emerging as contenders – perhaps the Scottish Budget may answer the concerns of these voters.
The breakdown of the green consensus
Following a general green consensus in the May and Johnson Governments, 2023 was a year of Rishi Sunak attempting to use green policy as a wedge against Labour. However, there are doubts over whether this wedge is more rhetoric than reality.
The year began with the creation of the Department of Net Zero and Energy Security, linking the two ideas within central Government. However, top level criticism of the Government’s net zero policies ramped up with the Climate Change Committee’s (CCCs) annual report in June warning that the UK was losing its world-leading position.
Perhaps the most decisive point for net zero policy came in July, with the Conservatives winning the Uxbridge by-election. This followed a successful campaign to disparage the expansion of London’s ultra-low emission zone. With Uxbridge, even after years of Starmer courting Conservative voters, Sunak had found his wedge between the two main parties. Sunak’s net zero speech in September was a continuation of this, as it was announced several policies would be supplanted, with the Government delaying targets for electric vehicle rollout and scrapping energy efficiency targets for landlords.
As part of this wedge, the Government sought to undermine Labour’s commitment of implementing £28bn of new spending on renewables, with this now derided in response to any question on the economy and the first line of the Autumn Statement. The Government also targeted Labour’s policy of no new oil and gas licences in the North Sea. Net zero was not as prioritised as the department’s name suggested, with the Government instead announcing a hundred new oil and gas licences at the end of July, committing to drill at Rosebank and announcing the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill in the King’s Speech. Although Labour has weakened its £28bn investment, the party has recently recommitted to it. Labour has also refused to be drawn into a trap around oil and gas and has agreed to not overturn any new licences.
Nevertheless, there is a serious question if the Government’s rhetoric and actions differ on net zero. Assessments of Sunak’s September speech from the CCC saw these announcements as ‘score draw’ or even a net positive. Most significantly, the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate survived, even with Conservative protest. Furthermore, the Government responded decisively to the failure of having no offshore wind bidders at Contracts for Difference auction round five. It is also perhaps likely that the Government will be willing to commit to using community benefits to gain support for local onshore wind farms. The Energy Act also included many positive developments, with the creation of the Great British Nuclear, unlocking new business models for hydrogen and a new net zero mandate for Ofgem.
So, has this wedge actually had an effect? Some polling found that people’s opinion of Sunak fell following his September announcement, with many voters still listing net zero as a priority. However, measures on electric vehicles were broadly popular. Likewise, there is doubt over whether the Government’s rhetoric tallies with their actions on net zero. This can perhaps be seen most at COP28. Although Sunak faced derision for spending more time flying to and from the conference than attending it, Britain remained a world leader in forcing a more significant agreement and also announced it would be providing £1.6bn for green finance and international climate change.
Pressure on the economy and public services
The year has been overshadowed by concerns around rising inflation and the pressure this puts on public services. Inflation was cited as the main reason for the Prime Minister’s decision to scrap the second phase of HS2 earlier this year. While Sunak may have been successful in his goal to get inflation halved by the end of the year, this still means that wages are losing their value in real terms – just at a slightly lower rate. 2023 has been a year dominated by industrial action across multiple sectors, and substantial public sector pay settlements have eaten into departmental budgets. The Government may have had a breakthrough on a pay deal with NHS consultants, but junior doctor strikes are still looming on the horizon, and there is still widespread dissatisfaction with pay among nurses and other NHS workers. The Government is insisting that pay rises must be funded through existing budgets, but this seems unlikely with NHS services already stretched to breaking point over the winter period, and an estimated £1.4bn of costs incurred due to strike action.
The Government has promised to ringfence health budgets but this puts even more pressure on other departments. Commentators have observed that Hunt’s tax cuts announced at the Autumn Statement are essentially paid for by cuts to public services which are ‘baked in’ for after the election. Moreover, research by the Institute for Government has shown that there will be real term spending decreases from 2024-25 to 2027-28: -0.7% in Local Government, -0.9% in Schools, -5.6% in the Courts and -6.7% in Prisons. With public services’ struggling and Local Governments such as Birmingham City Council and Cheshire East Council declaring bankruptcy, this raises significant questions for the Government and the Labour Party.
The Conservatives could be laying a trap for Labour – forcing the party to commit to what will be very difficult to implement spending cuts, or risk looking fiscally irresponsible. So far, Reeves and Starmer have avoided walking too close to this trap, but this may become more difficult as the General Election draws nearer.
Feeling unsure of your purpose in PR? Comms can be a force for good – it can amplify voices (too often) unheard by decision makers, changing mindsets, and sparking progress in society.
If you have PR skills, you already have everything you need in your toolbox to make change, too.
This was the topic of our latest Vuelio webinar ‘Empowering communities through advocacy campaigns’, where we were joined by the Royal National Institute of Blind People (RNIB) and the Commission for Victims and Survivors for Northern Ireland (CVSNI). Both organisations have had measurable success with ensuring their communities are heard and with pushing progress forward – here’s how they did it…
The challenge: Keeping offices open
On 5 July, a proposal was published to close almost all ticket offices across England and Glasgow Central. Despite the potentially huge consequences of this, a consultation was opened for just 21 days. For the RNIB, this meant quick action would be needed:
‘Our messaging was very clear,’ said RNIB’s local campaigns manager Lindsay Coyle. Aims were set – push for an extension to the consultation period, and keep the ticket offices open.
Actions: Get the word out
RNIB has regional teams across the country, and everybody needed to be on board with plans to spark engagement with the cause. Consultation response templates were shared, emails were sent out to subscribers encouraging contact with MPs, and news items were placed detailing how to submit responses.
As the consultation period was extended to 1 September, the RNIB team kept pushing, asking supporters to continue to write to their MPs and local newspapers expressing their concerns. In October, the transport secretary asked operators to withdraw their proposals – ticket offices would not be closed, and RNIB had achieved both of their objectives.
Results: Mainstream media cut through
As shared by Gorki Duhra from the PR team, RNIB secured 1,121 pieces of media coverage across broadcast print and online for this campaign. National media outlets including BBC, ITV, Sky, The Telegraph, The Independent, and local outlets across the devolved nations picked up the story, as volunteer campaigners, regional campaign officers, policy officers and spokespeople gave interviews.
The RNIB team secured a huge key message penetration rate of 98% across its media coverage, with 94% directly mentioning the charity’s research.
‘On the first day, we reached about 906 media outlets, which was a record for the charity for a one-day event,’ said Gorki. ‘Our messaging resonated with so many different people across society. We were on target straight away in getting the message out. And that was just by being prepared.’
Want to get positive results for your next campaign? Get everybody on board
‘We coordinated our team internally, engaging our wider staff group, and setting up an internal teams channel,’ shared Lindsay.
For external stakeholder engagement, personal stories and case studies are vital. RNIB invited the public to create their own stories using #INeedATicketOffice:
Thank you to everyone for sharing your #INeedATicketOffice so I can… stories.
We’ve shared them with Secretary of State for Transport, @Mark_J_Harper, and will continue to share your concerns so keep them coming.
‘We got videos of blind and partially-sighted people and our volunteer campaigners filming at local train stations to show how difficult it was to purchase a ticket, use the vending machines,’ explained Lindsay.
‘When politicians talked about the issue in Parliament, they spoke about the experiences of blind and partially sighted constituents and shared those stories directly. Labour actually used some of our statistics in their comms, as well.
‘Sharing personal stories across social media is really powerful, as is the ability to act quickly – being able to mobilise people to take action.’
Gorki shared the importance of being reactive to get cut-through:
‘As a charity, we knew about this a week before the announcement, which was snuck out on some Tuesday afternoon, at about 4.45pm, as these things tend to be. We had a few statements signed off and ready, and our distribution list of journalists – six minutes after it was announced, I had our statement out in the press.
‘PR isn’t just a press release, it’s using social media contingent, audio content, other messages – it’s sharing what people are really saying.’
The challenge: Centring people in Governmental procedure
Head of communications and PR Alana Fisher’s ten-person team at CVSNI had a huge challenge ahead of them for this particular campaign – advocating for victims and survivors of The Troubles in the wake of the proposals within the Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy and Reconciliation) Bill. The Bill was laid by the UK Parliament in May 2022 and widely condemned across Northern Ireland’s political spectrum – key contentions included provisions for immunity from prosecution for Troubles-related offences, and shutting down civil cases such as inquests.
Ultimately, the team knew stopping the Bill’s passage through Parliament would likely be an insurmountable task, and in September 2023, the Bill was passed into law. CVSNI’s energy and resources during its passage were focused on amendments; trying to keep victims and survivors front and centre:
‘There is such a vested interest in this Bill because of what it means for other conflict zones and the rest of the world who would look to the UK as a leader in upholding human rights,’ said Alana.
Actions: Educating on Northern Ireland’s history and influencing decision makers in Parliament
Education on the ongoing impact of Northern Ireland’s past would be a vital part of the CVSNI’s campaign – especially for stakeholders missing knowledge of the issue. Stakeholders to reach alongside victims and survivors were the media, NGOs and academics, international groups including the United Nations, the ECHR, and the US. Key stakeholders with the power to implement change were in UK Parliament:
‘We wrote to parliamentarians likely to have vested interest in this issue and developed very specific requests to be considered as amends to the Bill,’ explained Alana.
‘We were able to have a breakfast meeting with House of Lords Peers, bringing them together with victims and sharing what the Bill would mean for them, their families, and wider society. We got them early around a table, and highlighted those personal stories.
‘Most of the victim sector in Northern Ireland took an approach of no engagement with the Northern Ireland Office (NIO), which is Westminster’s branch looking after NI. The Commission came from a different point of view – we are a statutory organisation, and we have to advocate for all victims. We were vocal in our opposition to the Bill in the media, but alongside this, we adopted a pragmatic approach of leaning, in determining the power and influence we could have in the final shape of the Bill.’
‘The media and our own comms channels were an important way to highlight our messages – traditional media as well as self-generated. We produced podcast episodes on this issue, animation videos – different ways that we could raise the profile and how it was not an appropriate approach to deal with Northern Ireland’s past.’
Results: Growing understanding of impact
‘We really got to grow knowledge and understanding of the continuing impact of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, not just on victims and survivors, but through the generations,’ said Alana. ‘That isn’t always there in mainland UK, particularly with generational change.
‘Many members within the House of Lords went on record to say that this is the wrong approach, and at one stage during its passage, the Lords voted to remove the clause around immunity from prosecutions (it was, however, reinstated by the House of Commons).
‘We were able to get our message onto media channels in mainland UK as well as in Northern Ireland and international journalists, like those at the New York Times who were now keeping eye on this.’
Ultimately, the objective was to centre the voices of those who would be impacted the most, and CVSNI placed them in a position to be heard.
For success in your own cause-led campaigns, remember the people at the centre of your issue
‘When you put human beings in front of other human beings, it’s a different level of understanding that comes about,’ advises Alana.
‘We can put together as many communication tools and press releases as we want, but the power of personal stories was pivotal to us in highlighting what this Bill will do, both for the victims and survivors and their families, but also for the wider reconciliation aspect in Northern Ireland.’
Whatever you’re communicating, getting the word out to those who need to hear it is key. Know what you want to achieve, make sure your team is onboard and prepared, find your stakeholders, and get connecting – it really can make a difference.
Watch the full webinar here, and check out these four brands making a big impact with their cause-led comms.
https://www.vuelio.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Webinar-write-up.jpg430760Phoebe-Jane Boyd/uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Vuelio-PR-Comms-Public-Affairs-Logo.pngPhoebe-Jane Boyd2023-12-05 14:29:272023-12-05 14:37:44PR for good: How to empower communities with advocacy campaigns
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