Immigration

Christine Jardine: ‘Liberal Democrats will build an effective immigration system that treats everyone with dignity and respect’

This is a guest post from Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat Shadow Home Secretary and Women and Equalities spokesperson. She is the Lib Dem candidate for Edinburgh West.

Christine writes that ‘The UK’s immigration system is broken’ and proposes that her party ‘will take immigration powers away from the Home Office so that visa and asylum decisions are made quickly and fairly’, and allow asylum seekers to work while their cases are decided.

The UK’s immigration system is broken, and it is hurting everyone. I struggle to think of a time when the mention of the word ‘immigration’ during an election campaign was a sign of anything but an announcement of more ways to denigrate and marginalise the millions of migrants who have made the UK their home – who pay their taxes and work for our NHS, who build their businesses and their families as part of an open and welcoming British society.

Instead, we see immigration speeches that are tailor-made for what prospective Home Secretaries think are the lowest common denominator of British people – scoring points off the back of hard-working people based on where they were born. I think they’re wrong. I don’t believe that British people are mean-spirited or unwelcoming – I think they’ve been let down by politicians who are all too eager to blame immigrants for their own failings. For too long, the two main parties have scored points off the backs of hard-working people. Decades of hostile policies and rhetoric from Labour and Conservative governments have created a system that no one trusts, and that fails to respect people’s dignity.

Employers can’t recruit the workers they need, leaving the NHS short of nurses and social care in crisis. People without documents are denied access to healthcare and housing. Far too many people are detained indefinitely, in inhumane conditions and at great expense. Families are separated by unfair, complex visa requirements. The Windrush generation has been failed, deported, removed from their families, and some died without an inkling of an apology. Public confidence in the system has been shattered.

And in this election, there’s a risk we’ll be taken out of the EU and free movement will end. Millions more people cast into the abject failure of the Home Office, facing the risk of deportation away from their home, their work and their loved ones simply because neither Labour nor the Conservatives believe they are worth standing up for.

Liberal Democrats believe in a different approach. We will scrap the Conservatives’ Hostile Environment, replacing their fishing-net approach with targeted, intelligence-led immigration enforcement. We will take immigration powers away from the Home Office so that visa and asylum decisions are made quickly and fairly. We will restore dignity and common sense by ending indefinite detention and allowing asylum seekers to work while their cases are decided. And we will stop Brexit and save free movement.

At the same time, we recognise the danger posed to those who attempt to get to the UK illegally. In Essex, only a few weeks ago, we saw the horrifying results of a failed enforcement system. Liberal Democrats will invest in officers, training and technology to prevent illegal entry at Britain’s borders, tackle the smuggling of people, weapons, drugs and wildlife, and at the same time help refugees and asylum seekers who have fallen victim to cross-border criminal enterprises.

With that comes a moral obligation to play our part in the world – to stand tall and welcome those whose homes, lives, and countries have been destroyed by conflict and rendered too dangerous to return by widespread violence. Liberal Democrats will meet our obligations – resettling 10,000 vulnerable refugees each year and help 10,000 unaccompanied refugee children from across Europe over the next 10 years. These people have already seen their homes destroyed – the very least we can do is open our arms to them and tell them that the UK is a place they can be safe and rebuild their lives.

With a Liberal Democrat government, every person will have their dignity respected and UK employers will be able to recruit the workers they need. Those who choose to come to the UK to work, study or join their families will be welcomed for the skills and contributions that they bring. Family unity will be protected; the rule of law will be respected; and we will ensure fairness for taxpayers. Liberal Democrats will build a brighter future, with a fair, effective immigration system that treats everyone with dignity and respect.

Voting

General election pacts: will they have an impact?

As the deadline for election candidate nominations passes today, Vuelio assesses the likely impact of alliances and pacts between parties.

The 2019 General Election is set to be one of the most unpredictable in living memory.

Polling is fluctuating, though in general it still shows a Conservative lead; manifestos have yet to be released; and in the last few days the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all been affected by candidates standing down due to controversial social media posts coming to light. Labour candidate Kate Osborne remains in post despite a row over her sharing an image on Facebook in 2017 with an image of Theresa May being held at gunpoint.

The close of nominations for all parliamentary candidates is 4pm on Thursday 14 November and after this deadline there will be a clear list of which parties are contesting which constituencies.

Nigel Farage’s ‘big decision’ announced on Monday to withdraw 317 Brexit party candidates in every seat that elected a Conservative MP in 2017 follows huge pressure on him to not oppose the Conservatives. Several Brexit Party candidates had already announced they would not stand in seats where it looked likely they would let in Labour or the Liberal Democrats and a Times leader column said: ‘So long as the Brexit Party remains on the ballot there is a real possibility that Brexit will be stopped’.

Nigel Farage was clear that his party will still contest Labour held seats and seats held by other Remain parties.

Brexit supporters have pointed out that this stance could still deprive the Conservatives of a majority, if they split the Leave vote in crucial Labour Tory marginal seats in the North and the Midlands.

The Brexit Party has argued that the Conservatives should stand down in some of these Labour heartland constituencies, which have not been held by the Conservatives for more than 100 years, where polling suggests voters are more likely to back the Brexit Party to deliver Brexit than to vote Conservative.

Despite this, Farage reports that his candidates in Labour-facing seats are under continued pressure to stand aside: ‘Our people, men and women who put themselves forward are now coming under relentless phone calls, email and abuse, and being told they must stand down. That is happening in 21st Century Britain. I think that is a complete and utter disgrace.’

Monday’s Brexit Party announcement followed a video by Boris Johnson in which he promised to pursue a Canada-Plus free trade agreement with the EU and not to extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020.

Not to be outdone on the Remain side, Unite to Remain announced a plan affecting 60 seats in England and Wales, where a single Remain party will stand.

This initiative is between the Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats. The full list of affected seats is here. Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said when the list was announced that, ‘their effect is going to be small’ and he suggested at best that it might mean the Liberal Democrats winning ‘half a dozen’ additional seats. Many of the seats affected effectively had similar agreements in place in 2017 too, so the impact may be negligible.

Separate to this agreement, some Liberal Democrat candidates have come under pressure to stand down in seats held by Labour, which are vulnerable to the Conservatives. The Lib Dem candidate for Canterbury, prominent Pro-EU journalist Tim Walker, has withdrawn from the constituency where Labour’s Rosie Duffield defends a majority of 187 votes.

Because Labour is not an explicitly Remain party and chose not to take part in the Remain Alliance, the Lib Dems have said a different candidate will be nominated in Canterbury. Another Lib Dem candidate has stood down in High Peak in Derbyshire where Labour defends a narrow majority of 2,322 votes but the party was expected to replace this person with a new candidate as well.

With four weeks remaining until the election, it is impossible to know the impact these agreements will have on the result, especially before the manifestos have even been published or before any tv debates have aired.

It will depend on the polling trends and whether the margin between the main parties increases or reduces. Equally in an election in the middle of winter, the weather could have a significant impact. Flooding in Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire has already affected the campaign this week with visits from all the main party leaders to affected areas to speak to affected residents, and the Prime Minister being criticised for the Government’s slow response.

Voter registration numbers continue to rise with over 1.5 million registrations in the last two weeks and adverts on TV and online encouraging people to register to vote. It is worth monitoring the total number of registrations by the deadline of 26 November. Then all eyes will be on the TV debates and the party manifesto launches to see whether these lead to a significant boost in voter turnout, and if this exceeds the 69% who voted in 2017. 18% of voters in 2017 or 8.4 million people voted by post in that election. We would expect that to increase in this poll not least due to the weather and busy run up to Christmas.

Liz Saville Roberts post

Liz Saville Roberts: The nasty party is well and truly back – the Remain alliance offers a stark contrast

Plaid Cymru’s Westminster Leader Liz Saville Roberts writes that ‘the last few days have seen the mask slip for the Conservative Party’ and argues that her party’s agreement with two other Remain parties to work together in 60 key seats ‘offers a stark contrast’.

Politics is pointless if it is not underpinned by principles. The values which we hold define our world-view. The last few days have seen the mask slip for the Conservative Party and the arrogant, yahoo, old boys’ club mentality that they have desperately tried to distance themselves from returned to centre stage.

The election race has barely begun, and we have already seen Conservative Party candidates taking deplorable moral stances and engaging in dubious backtracking.

A day-one resignation marked the beginning of their election campaign this week.

The Secretary of State for Wales Alun Cairns was forced to stand down when he lied about ‘categorically’ having no prior knowledge of a former aide’s role in collapsing a rape trial.

This deplorable behaviour exposes the lengths to which the Conservative Party will go in order to cover their tracks, not only demonstrating a flagrant disregard for our justice system, but also a disturbing lack of morality, let alone empathy.

My only hope is that his resignation brings some comfort to the victim. But a fundamental question still remains: if it was bad enough for Mr Cairns to resign as Secretary of State, why does he think himself fit to stand again for public office?

Mr Cairns’ resignation follows Jacob Rees-Mogg’s horrendous comments regarding the victims of the Grenfell Tower tragedy. Mr Rees-Mogg alleged that leaving the building was the ‘common sense thing to do’.

From these comments we can only conclude that Mr Rees-Mogg believes the advice of either the Fire Brigade lacked common sense, or the victims of fire themselves did.

This not only shows a fundamental lack of empathy on Mr Rees-Mogg’s part, but also calls into question his views on public services such as the Fire Brigade, seemingly presuming he is above the advice of those trusted with protecting us in dangerous situations. Or possibly that those who follow the advice of these services have no one to blame but themselves.

His equally repugnant Tory colleague, Andrew Bridgen, proceeded to exacerbate the situation when he leapt to defend Mr Rees-Mogg, claiming the comments were a ‘by-product of what Jacob is’.

These comments reflect precisely what ‘Jacob’ believes he is – a man whose over-inflated sense of intellect and authority makes him believe he is above any of the trials faced by those of us who weren’t born-to-rule.

Mr Rees-Mogg later stated that he was ‘profoundly sorry’ for the comments and that he would have in fact ‘listened to the fire brigade’s advice’. However, I’m sure these words ring hollow for those who witnessed the horrors of Grenfell first hand, especially when coming from a man so far removed from the harsh reality of the situation.

The actions of these two men not only showcases their incompetent and negligent attitude, but also draws attention to a much greater issue at the heart of the Conservative Party: a reckless disregard for those they hurt. An entrenched belief in victim blaming. A party so enamoured of the old boys’ network mentality of ‘anything goes’ that they are not only permitting but encouraging damaging and disgraceful behaviour toward the public. A party whose interests are solely their own, and to hell with who they hurt in the process.

These are values we cannot allow to find their way back into our politics.

So, slogans and Facebook adverts aside, this Tory party is far from modern and relevant. More back to the past than forward to the future.

It is a leap to past principles that even if they were not eradicated from our politics, parties should be embarrassed to harbour.

The grown-up principled politics of my party, Plaid Cymru, in coming to an agreement with two other opposition parties to field one pro-Remain candidate in key seats offers a stark contrast.

We have put our countries before parties, where others are putting their parties before all else. In the case of the Conservative party, it could even be argued that they are putting themselves before their party.

This is a guest post from Rt Hon Liz Saville Roberts, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster Leader and the party’s candidate in Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

New Environment Bill to ensure we are the first generation to leave the natural environment in a better state than we found it

Vicky Ford MPThis is a guest post from Vicky Ford, Conservative MP for Chelmsford and a member of the Science and Technology Committee.

As an MP, I have taken particular interest in the damaging impact of plastic waste, particularly on developing countries and the marine environment. I am delighted that the Environment Bill contains a range of ambitious measures that should help to drastically reduce our plastic waste.

In the UK we have already set a world-leading net zero target and supported record levels of investment in renewables, especially offshore wind where we are a world leader. We have decarbonised faster than any other major economy and have already reduced climate emissions by 25% since 2010. The UK is also leading the way in the phase out of coal fired power stations and reducing maritime emissions.

The UK has doubled international climate funding to £11.6 billion, and successfully bid to host the UN Climate summit next year in Glasgow. This Climate Summit provides us with a huge opportunity to accelerate global action on climate change. However, there is always more to do.

The Government has published a 25-year Environment Plan, which is being enshrined in the Environment Bill. This landmark Bill was published as part of the Queen’s Speech. It is a central part in the Government delivering a step-change in environmental protection and recovery. It will also support the legislation to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 by minimising our waste, cleaning our air and water, and restoring habitats to allow plants and wildlife to thrive. The Bill has been warmly welcomed by Environmental campaigners.

The Bill will establish a new system of green governance and accountability, creating a world-leading environmental watchdog in the Office of Environmental Protection (OEP), and enshrining Environmental Principles in law, which will embed environmental values at the heart of Government policy making. To ensure the UK continues to drive forward ambitious action to tackle climate change, legislation will be brought within the enforcement remit of the OEP. The Bill will also implement a new statutory cycle of target setting, monitoring, planning and reporting to help deliver significant, long-term environmental improvement. This will include Environmental Improvement Plans (EIPs), the first being the 25-year Environment Plan.

The Bill will drive a major shift in minimising waste and moving towards a more circular economic model. It will introduce measures based on the ‘polluter pays’ principle, create a simplified approach to recycling, and tackle waste crime. Producers will be responsible for the full net costs of managing their products at end of life, encouraging them to design their products with re-use and recycling in mind. This will result in more durable, repairable and recyclable products. To tackle plastic pollution, the Environment Bill will enable the creation of new charges for other single-use plastic items, similar to the carrier bag charge, which will incentivise a shift towards the use of more reusable items. The Government is also taking powers to establish deposit return schemes that will further incentivise consumers to reduce litter and recycle more.

The Bill will enable greater local action on air pollution, better enabling us to tackle emissions from burning coal and wood; and bring forward powers for Government to mandate recalls of vehicles and machinery when they do not meet relevant legal emission standards. The Environment Bill makes a clear commitment to set a legally binding target for the pollutant with the most significant impact on human health, fine particulate matter.

The Bill will introduce additional requirements for water company planning for future water supply and wastewater and drainage networks, enabling more resilient solutions to drought and flooding. In a changing climate, these measures will ensure the water regulator has the powers it needs to respond to changing priorities. The Bill enhances flood and coastal erosion risk management, allowing for the expansion of existing internal drainage boards or the creation of new ones where there is local appetite to do so. The Government is also reforming elements of abstraction licensing to link it more tightly to our goal of restoring water bodies to as close to natural state as possible and reducing substances which are potentially harmful to surface waters and groundwater. The Environment Bill will also make it possible to keep the legislation up to date on chemicals.

The Environment Bill supports and enables action to create or restore wildlife rich habitats to enable wildlife to recover and thrive. It will ensure that new developments enhance biodiversity and help deliver thriving natural spaces for communities. This will also support certainty in the planning system and therefore the delivery of new housing, while retaining and providing habitats that can enhance biodiversity.

Alongside the Bill, the Government response will publish the consultation on protecting and enhancing England’s trees and woodland, covering measures to increase the transparency and accountability in the process of felling street trees.

The Environment Bill will enable our country to make big steps towards delivering the goal that this will be the first generation to leave the natural environment in a better state than we found it. It is a tremendous opportunity and I hope that you will agree that we should grasp it with both hands.

Frequent-Flyer

Is it time to ban frequent flyer schemes to tackle the climate emergency?

This is a guest post from Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb (Jenny Jones) a Green Party member of the House of Lords, who has written about her parliamentary question in the House of Lords on ‘Plans to ban or restrict frequent flyer “airmiles” schemes’.

Reducing aviation emissions is one of the big political headaches. People will recycle; catch the train rather than drive; eat less meat and turn the thermostat down a notch, but ask them to stop flying and they don’t want to do it. I haven’t flown for years and have taken a pledge not to fly for the coming year. This meant I had to shelve my plans for a big US road trip. It has not been an easy decision, but given the climate emergency, it seems like the right one.

Given the melting ice caps and record-breaking temperatures around the globe, it is shocking that companies like Virgin are still offering a frequent flyer loyalty scheme that encourages more flights. This has caused the Government’s Committee on Climate Change to recommend that the practice is banned. I will be asking the Minister in the Lords whether they will act on this mildest of reforms.

Instead of giving incentives to fly more often, we should be reducing demand by introducing a frequent flyer tax where we target the rich 15% of the population who take 70% of the flights. Every year people would get an allowance of a single flight and the tax on subsequent flights would increase rapidly the more trips people took. As frequent flyers tend to be the wealthier members of our society, this seems the most egalitarian way of reducing emissions while allowing people to attend those special family events and get togethers that can be so precious.

This would inevitably mean that the Heathrow expansion is cancelled, along with a lot of other airport schemes designed to generate an increased demand for flights. If we are aiming for zero emissions by 2035, then we have to act urgently to curb aviation demand. I know that the Government target is 2050 and that many are still hopeful that the technological solutions of bio-fuels and electric planes can be developed, but we can’t plan on that basis. If the aviation industry is confident it can reduce emissions then get on with it. We can discuss any plans for expansion once they have got the technology working.

Nor can we continue with the illusion that the emissions from planes taking off, or landing, at Heathrow, are not our (UK) emissions. The lack of an international agreement means that greenhouse gases from aviation are not fully counted as part of the Government’s zero emission target. This sleight of hand has got to stop. Climate change could end our entire way of life. We either change rapidly now, or have change forced upon us.

Brexit

Boris Johnson: ‘A very good deal both for the EU and the UK’

A new Brexit deal has been agreed with the European Union only hours before the start of the EU Council meeting in Brussels.

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted:

President Juncker added: ‘We now have a newly agreed Protocol that protects peace and stability on the island of Ireland and fully protects our Single Market. I hope that we can now bring this over the line and provide the certainty our citizens and businesses so deserve.’

The new Withdrawal Agreement says in specific relation to Northern Ireland that both sides are:
‘Determined that the application of this Protocol should impact as little as possible on the everyday life of communities in both Ireland and Northern Ireland’

It also underlined ‘the firm commitment to no customs and regulatory checks or controls and related physical infrastructure at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland’.

There is a clear view from the EU that while many key figures in Brussels might regret the UK’s referendum decision in 2016, the time has now come to pass a Withdrawal Agreement and to move forward to the second stage of negotiating the UK’s future partnership with the EU.

In a joint press conference with President Juncker, Boris Johnson said: ‘I do think that this deal represents a very good deal both for the EU and the UK. It represents a reasonable, fair outcome and reflects the large amount of work that’s been undertaken by both sides.’

The PM was also keen to stress that today’s agreement does protect the peace process in Northern Ireland.

Johnson called on his fellow MPs in Westminster to: ‘come together to get Brexit done, to get this excellent deal over the line and to deliver Brexit without any more delay so that we can focus on the priorities of the British people.’

He added that the UK was keen to leave the EU on good terms: ‘We are a quintessential European country. Solid European friends, neighbours and supporters.’

For many, the risk of the EU lowering environmental standards and workers’ rights has been a concern addressed by the ‘Level playing field for open and fair competition’. This is crucial to securing the votes of as many Labour MPs as possible, who will presumably have to vote against their party whip in order to support the deal.

This aspect has been moved from the legally binding withdrawal agreement to the non-legally binding political declaration. This might be a major stumbling block to securing the votes of Labour MPs in leave-voting seats, who have expressed a desire to leave the EU with a deal swiftly. Labour’s Seb Dance MEP said moving the level playing field measures is ‘as sure a sign as any, Johnson has no intention of honouring them’.

After days of intense talks, the Conservative Party’s confidence and supply partners, the Democratic Unionist Party, have not actually signed up to this latest deal. Some wonder if they will change their view before Saturday’s crucial votes or if the PM feels he has sufficient MPs on side, not to need the ten DUP votes. Equally will they abstain or vote against the deal? This will have a significant impact on the final result. On 30 March 2019 in Theresa May’s final attempt to get her Brexit deal passed by MPs, only four MPs abstained, as well as the MPs who never take part in votes like the Speaker, his deputies and the seven Sinn Fein MPs.

It is also worth reflecting on where the UK is heading if MPs reject a deal for the fourth time on Saturday. It seems the EU is minded not to offer the UK a further extension so in reality the votes on Saturday will be all the more crucial if voting against the deal will mean MPs are bring a no-deal exit a step closer. Equally MPs have voted for the motion on Saturday to be amendable, so it is expected that there will be another opportunity for MPs to vote on whether or not to have a second EU referendum.

Jeremy Corbyn said: ‘As it stands we cannot support this deal and we will oppose it in parliament on Saturday’, and there are reports that Labour will whip its MPs to back a second referendum option on Saturday.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson has said that the PM is in a ‘desperate situation’ and that this new deal is similar to Theresa May’s Brexit deal but that it is ‘going to be worse for the economy’.

Nigel Farage is not supporting this new deal, he said: ‘It’s just not Brexit. We will never be able to properly break free of the EU if we sign up to this’.

Equally with a Queen’s Speech vote looming next week, which without a majority the Government is likely to lose, it is unclear how close the country could be to a general election campaign starting and whether this deal is actually an attempt to bring about a general election, according to the Guardian’s Brexit correspondent Lisa O’Carroll.

Boris Johnson CPC19

‘Get Brexit Done’: the Conservative Party Conference 2019

The Conservative Conference will probably be judged by party insiders to have been a success. Certainly, the feedback from delegates in the bars and fringe meetings in Manchester was one of optimism and a determination to get Brexit delivered by the end of October.

The stories about Boris Johnson’s private life, either relating to Jennifer Arcuri or allegations by the journalist Charlotte Edwardes that he had squeezed her thigh at a Spectator lunch in 1999, seemed to have very little cut-through with Conservative party members and activists. They queued around the block to hear his first leader’s speech and it was well received in the conference hall, even though there was surprise from the press pack that not a single new policy was actually announced, with journalist Gaby Hinsliff calling it ‘a triumph of rhetoric over reality’.

It is likely that any new policy ideas are being saved for the inevitable General Election campaign or they will be unveiled in the Queen’s Speech on 14 October.

Nonetheless the Prime Minister set out his vision for the UK post-Brexit with his characteristic optimism. His concluded with: ‘This country has long been a pioneer. We inaugurated the steam age, the atomic age, the age of the genome. We led the way in parliamentary democracy, in female emancipation. And when the whole world had succumbed to a different fashion, this country and this party pioneered ideas of free markets and privatisation that spread across the planet.

‘Every one of them was controversial, every one of them was difficult, but we have always had the courage to be original, to do things differently, and now we are about to take another giant step to do something no one thought we could do.

‘To reboot our politics, to relaunch ourselves into the world, and to dedicate ourselves again to that simple proposition that we are here to serve the democratic will of the British people.

‘And if we do that with optimism and confidence then I tell you we will not go wrong. Let’s get on with sensible moderate one nation but tax-cutting Tory government, and figuratively if not literally, let us send Jeremy Corbyn into orbit where he belongs.

‘Let’s get Brexit done. Let’s bring our country together.’

The conference also gave Mr Johnson’s newly appointed cabinet ministers opportunities to speak from the main stage and many were impressed with Sajid Javid’s authentic greeting to his mother, who was in the audience to see his first conference speech as Chancellor.

He spoke briefly in Punjabi as he addressed his mother who was in the audience attending her first ever Conservative conference. He said she had been proud when the first Asians moved into Coronation Street in Manchester 20 years ago, but now his family were the first Asians to move into Downing Street.

Another proud British Asian, Home Secretary Priti Patel also delivered a powerful address during the four-day conference, which made it clear how important restoring a sense of law and order will be to this Government, building on the Prime Minister’s ambition to recruit an additional 20,000 new police officers over the next five years.

The Home Secretary set out her ambition to end the free movement of people once and for all.

She concluded her speech with this rallying cry: ‘This party, our Conservative party, is backing those who put their lives on the line for our national security.

‘So, as we renew our place as the party of law and order in Britain, let the message go out from this hall today: To the British people – we hear you; to the police service – we back you; and to the criminals, I simply say this – we are coming after you.’

Away from the conference hall, Vuelio hosted a panel session with Prospect magazine on how social media is changing the relationships between MPs and the public, where Nicky Morgan admitted to no longer reading her messages or notifications due to online abuse.

In another fringe meeting, the Chancellor hinted that he is prepared to look at scrapping or reforming inheritance tax as he ‘understands the arguments against that tax’. Principally, these are taxing the value of someone’s money, property and possessions upon their death, when they have potentially already paid tax on it during their lifetime.

Also briefly dominating the conference media coverage on Tuesday was the altercation that took place in the International Lounge within the conference centre’s secure zone involving a senior backbench Conservative MP.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown was asked to leave the conference after he tried to enter a room with a guest without the relevant pass. He described the incident as ‘a minor verbal misunderstanding’.

The fracas resulted in a lockdown of part of the Manchester Central Convention Centre. The MP later apologised unreservedly, and a Conservative party spokesperson said: ‘The incident was totally unacceptable’.

Within hours of the conference concluding, the media discussion was dominated not by the PM’s speech, but by the release of his latest proposals to leave the EU with a deal. We await to see how they proceed and when MPs might get a vote on these proposals, possibly before or more likely after the EU Council meeting with a potential crunch Saturday sitting on 19 October.

While this is also the final day for a formal extension to be made to the EU to ensure the UK doesn’t leave on a no-deal basis, we are very unclear as to how the Government will proceed with this given they repeat that they will comply with the law but also that the Prime Minster has absolutely no intention of asking for such an extension.

The Vuelio team spent the week in Manchester and have put together a Canvas highlighting key speeches, fringe coverage and the top media reaction.

Prospect panel

Is social media changing the relationship between MPs and the public for good or bad?

On Monday, Vuelio co-hosted a panel debate with Prospect magazine at the Conservative Party Conference on how social media is changing the relationship between MPs and the public.

The panel session was chaired by Stephanie Boland, head of digital at Prospect magazine and she was joined by Nicky Morgan MP, secretary of state for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport; Damian Collins MP, chair of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee; Matt Warman MP, parliamentary under secretary of state for Digital and Broadband; Marie Le Conte, political freelance journalist; and Vuelio’s Kelly Scott, head of political and stakeholder strategy.

The session followed research that Vuelio commissioned from MPs across the House of Commons to understand the importance of social media in public engagement. The findings showed that 81% of MPs believe that public attitude has changed for the worse because of social media and 76% believe social media has made it difficult for the public to source credible information.

The panel session was wide ranging, with discussion covering abuse on social media and how to regulate this, the need for a global set of standards for social media, how we protect vulnerable people in a digital age and microtargeting.

When asked specifically about microtargeting on social media, Collins said: ‘Our electoral law should be established by parliament not Mark Zuckerberg’. He argued that all political advertising had to be clearly indicated, as this is not always the case with some campaign groups.

Warman pointed out that when it comes to microtargeting, ‘we’ve had [microtargeting] as long as we’ve had advertising’, and that we need to be realistic about what this means.

When it comes to managing and tackling abuse on social media, the panel had a mix of advice. Morgan admitted that she no longer looks at her notifications and messages on Twitter and said that the noisy abusers have drowned out those with genuine right and need to contact her, while Warman admitted that he still responds to pretty much everyone on Facebook and is currently trying to work out how to back out of this arrangement.

Vulnerable people are particularly susceptible to harmful images and as Scott highlighted, ‘there are whole groups of people who can’t use traditional forms of media’, which is why technology has to be the long answer when it comes to protecting these groups and making social media accessible and safe for all.

The panel all agreed that social media is now a fixed part of the political landscape with Le Conte commenting, ‘political discourse used to be tied to what happens in the Commons, now MPs end up arguing with journalists, each other and everyone else about the topic of the day and this never stops’.

Morgan reminded the audience that it is important to remember that ‘the whole of the public is not represented on Twitter or Facebook’, reflecting our research that face to face meetings are still considered the most important way to engage with constituents.

Politics of social media

MPs and the public: is social media changing the relationship for good or bad?

Vuelio is hosting a fringe event at Conservative party conference to discuss the very timely question of what impact social media is having on the relationship between voters and politicians.

Given the last three years of UK politics, there can be no doubt we live in uncertain political times, and it is very clear that social media is playing an increasingly central role in politics, at every level.

With an early general election now inevitable, we know that social media will be a key tool during that campaign for all parties, given it dominated the last two elections and the EU referendum.

A growing proportion of voters also rely on it as a source for news and information, as well as a place for them to post their own opinions on stories.

Vuelio wanted to better understand what impact this was having so commissioned a survey of MPs, completed in July, into their perception of the difference social media is making to the political discourse.

The results present a number of surprising headlines:

  • Four in five MPs (81%) believing ‘public attitudes had been changed for the worse’ because of social media.
  • Two in five (42%) MPs believe social media has changed the policy making process for the worse
  • A third (36%) believe it has changed public understanding of policy for the worse.

But it is not all bad news.

In our poll, MPs acknowledge that social media is now one of the most effective ways to reach constituents and gauge their opinions, and social channels make it possible for them to reach a far broader number of voters who won’t engage through print, meetings or traditional campaigning.

The importance of social media in sharing information and gaining insight and opinion is not changing and likely to only become more important in the future.

Technology has a fundamental role to play by providing MPs with the monitoring, evaluation and engagement tools they need to engage more effectively with their voters on social media.

If you are attending the Conservative Party Conference, please come along to our event:

 

MPs and the public: is social media changing the relationship for good or bad?

Date: Monday 30 September

Time: 12.45 – 2pm

Venue: Central 6, Manchester Central

 

Speakers include:

  • Nicky Morgan MP – Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
  • Damian Collins MP – Chair, Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee
  • Marie Le Conte – Political Freelance Journalist
  • Matt Warman MP – Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Digital and Broadband (DCMS)

 

We will be tweeting throughout the event, follow us @Vuelio_Politics and join in using the hashtag #ClarityinConfusion.

Labour Conference

A deputy leader coup, Brexit position and Supreme Court decision: Labour Party Conference 2019

The Labour conference in Brighton was overshadowed by three factors: an attempted coup on the eve of conference to abolish the post of Deputy Leader; a fraught debate over the party’s Brexit position in the upcoming election; and, most spectacularly, the Supreme Court decision on Tuesday morning that ruled the Government’s prorogation of parliament was void and of no effect.

This unanimous judgement by the 11 Supreme Court Justices had a serious impact on the duration of the Labour conference, as it meant that the leader’s speech was brought forward a day to Tuesday afternoon.

Jeremy Corbyn’s speech began with a call for the Prime Minister to resign following the Supreme Court ruling. He said: ‘Let me send this message to Boris Johnson: if you still lead your party into an election, we know your campaign will be swimming in cash.

‘But we’ve got something you haven’t – people in their hundreds of thousands rooted in all communities and all age groups across Britain and we’ll meet you head on with the biggest people-powered campaign this country has ever seen. And if we win it will be the people who win’.

Corbyn promised a radical programme, not least the nationalisation of mail, rail, national grid and water. He also pledged to make research funding conditional on firms providing cheaper drugs and the establishment of a publicly-run firm to produce generic medicines. This followed a long running campaign to ensure the drug Orkambi is available on the NHS for sufferers of Cystic Fibrosis and other conditions.

Many MPs then left Brighton one day early to ensure they were able to sit in the Commons from 11.30am on Wednesday.

This last minute change to the agenda meant that Deputy Leader Tom Watson waived his deputy leader’s speech slot and even though he was apparently offered a chance to speak on Wednesday, he declined, tweeting: ‘I’ll have to save the speech until the next conference.’

The Momentum-led attempt to abolish Tom Watson’s position as deputy leader, was designed to remove him from post after policy differences with Jeremy Corbyn as well as his position on Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn ensured that this row did not completely dominate the conference and stepped in, personally proposing a review of the role rather than an outright vote on immediate removal of it.

The conference itself gave Labour the opportunity to set out a bold programme for Government including John McDonnell’s pledge that Labour would implement at 32-hour working week within the next decade: ‘It will be a shorter working week with no loss of pay’.

He added that a Working Time Commission would be set up to give people more power over their working lives.

The Shadow Chancellor added that the main challenge for an incoming Labour Government would be to ‘rebuild local democracy, rebuild those local council services decimated by the Conservatives and, yes, the Lib Dems as well when they were in Government.’

He also pledged to fund personal care, free at the point of use in England, to be funded through a fair taxation system.

Shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry, used her speech to attack Boris Johnson who she shadowed during his tenure as Foreign Secretary: ‘In my entire time in parliament I have never shadowed anyone so lazy, so incompetent, so deceitful and reckless. So utterly unsuitable for the job of Prime Minister’.

Among other key note speakers, Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long Bailey said that an incoming Labour Government would usher in ‘a new era of public luxury’ after decades of deindustrialisation. She promised additional investment in offshore wind farms and electric car production.

Shadow Environment Secretary Sue Hayman’s speech covered food waste, food banks and improving the UK’s animal welfare standards. She said: ‘Today, I am announcing that the next Labour Government will introduce a Right to Food embedded in UK law, underpinned by an over-arching national food strategy. We will introduce a Fair Food Act.’

Much attention was given to a motion passed by conference delegates to commit the party to integrate private schools into the state sector. While this motion wasn’t directly referred to by Jeremy Corbyn in his speech, it is more likely that independent schools would lose their charitable status, other public subsidies and tax privileges, if a Labour Government was elected.

The party’s Brexit position was thrashed out on Monday with a heated debate in the conference hall, and despite senior shadow Cabinet members John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and others saying they would campaign to remain, delegates instead voted in favour of a motion proposing Labour stays neutral on Brexit in the upcoming general election with a special conference to debate the issue after the general election and before a second referendum has taken place. Senior Labour spokespeople and candidates were surprised by this result and many implied it would be difficult to defend and explain on the doorsteps in the general election, which lies ahead.

I suspect the Labour leadership will be pleased that the party can maintain some neutrality on Brexit in a general election campaign and aim to reunite the country once a new referendum has taken place, offering a credible leave option alongside Remain. Whether this compromise is enough to hold together the Labour family of leave voting heartlands in the north, midlands and south Wales as well as its metropolitan and diverse remain leaning seats, is still to be seen. Clearly the party hopes to limit the loss of Labour votes to either the explicitly pro remain Liberal Democrats or to the no-deal supporting Brexit party.

Jo Swinson Lib Dems

Preparing for Government or a Bournemouth echo chamber?

The Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth offered a warm and sunny start to the party conference season for journalists and public affairs folk. Lobby journalists were even spotted heading down to the beach in swimming shorts, while others took part in the traditional Glee Club sing song, which has to be seen to be believed.

For party activists it was brighter still. The party is in good heart with a general election looming, perhaps now only 12 weeks away. Conference was also attended by a record-breaking number of delegates (3,234) and Lib Dem membership now exceeds 120,000.

Jo Swinson, elected as the party’s first ever female leader in July, is already making a serious impact on UK politics. She declared in her speech: ‘There is no limit to my ambition for our party’ and argued that ‘People across Britain deserve a better choice than an entitled Etonian or a 1970s socialist’.

The recent string of MP defections to the party have largely been positively received. Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger, Sarah Wollaston, Angela Smith and Philip Lee all attended conference and were welcomed by members and their new parliamentary colleagues alike. The widely trailed big name defection announced by Jo Swinson on Saturday at the conference rally was Sam Gyimah, a former minister, PPS to David Cameron and, in the early stages of the Conservative leadership race, a candidate for the highest office in the land.

The party also welcomed Welsh Lib Dem leader Jane Dodds to its House of Commons benches, the first by-election gain from the Conservatives for 19 years, regaining the former Lib Dem seat of Brecon and Radnorshire in August and putting the party on the political map in Wales, having been narrowly wiped off it in 2017.

Conference debates were uncontroversial apart from the main motion on Brexit with the section calling for a Lib Dem majority Government to revoke Article 50 on its first day in office the most unpalatable for some. While the motion passed successfully, several prominent critics, including former MPs Simon Hughes and Andrew George, called it ‘controversial’ and ‘counterproductive and unworkable’. Andrew George is standing in St Ives in Cornwall where he seeks to overturn a Tory majority of 312 votes. He warned that the policy risked a Government run by Dominic Cummings portraying the Lib Dems as ‘undemocratic and illiberal’ and warned from past experience that the Conservatives were ‘past masters at being able to turn things into slogans and throw them back at us’.

None the less, the party is clearly confident that an unequivocal revoke stance in the upcoming election will ensure a substantial number of MPs are elected. As well as former Lib Dem held seats like Cheltenham, Winchester, Yeovil and North Cornwall; the party is eyeing up constituencies it has never held before but where polling points to a strong chance such as: St Albans, Cities of London and Westminster, Wimbledon and Vauxhall. The party is also heavily promoting its London Mayoral candidate Siobhan Benita, who is a former civil servant and fought the 2012 Mayoral election as an independent. Together with Jo Swinson and a large number of female candidates in winnable or held seats at the election, this is very different to the party that as recently as 2016 numbered only eight white male MPs.

So, with 18 MPs in the House of Commons, a record 16 MEPs elected to the party in the European elections in June, 50 Liberal Democrat council leaders or co-leaders now running local authorities, the party may be right to be optimistic ahead of the general election. The leadership is presenting Jo Swinson as the party’s candidate for Prime Minister and her conference speech was relatively light on policy announcements, but promised a wellbeing budget, additional spending for youthwork and mental health services. The only question remains, how a substantial number of Lib Dem MPs would seek to work with either larger party if called upon, given a coalition with either of them has effectively been ruled out already. Only time will tell.

MPs believe social media has a negative impact on politics

Research commissioned by Vuelio, the political and media software provider, has found that MPs believe social media has a negative impact on politics, with four in five (81%) of the 137 MPs surveyed believing public attitudes towards politicians have been changed for the worse as a result of social media. The research is released at a time of heightened speculation regarding an early general election. It is important to recognise the central role that social media is likely to play in any subsequent campaign, as a crucial communication tool for all of the main parties.

According to MPs, there are specific ways in which social media has damaged public engagement. Over three quarters (79%) believe social media has made it difficult for the public to source information from trustworthy sources and 78% believe it leads to people being overloaded with information. This impacts policy making, with two in five (42%) MPs believing social media has changed the policy making process for the worse, and a third (36%) believe it has changed public understanding of policy for the worse.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL RESULTS HERE

While MPs believe, on balance, that social media has had negative impact on politics, they do recognise some positives. Almost half (47%) of MPs say it has improved the transparency of politics and around two in five (44%) say it has improved engagement between politicians and the public.

Commenting on the research, Joanna Arnold, CEO of Vuelio said: ‘Social media has ushered in a new era of political immediacy that is reshaping how politicians engage with the public. While recognising that social media has improved transparency, four in five MPs believe it has changed public attitudes towards politicians for the worse. The depth of concern that MPs have is a timely reminder of the risks of social media as well as the potential it has to transform political engagement.’

Max McEwan, Senior Consultant at ComRes said: ‘While politicians clearly have misgivings about the impact of social media on the political process, they are increasingly reliant on these new tools of communication. This is particularly true for MPs in marginal constituencies, for whom the research shows that social media is the most important channel when engaging with potential voters. We therefore stand poised to enter an election that could be decided based, in part, via a communication channel that MPs consider to have damaged the political process.’

Rachael Clamp Chart.PR, MCIPR, Chair of CIPR Public Affairs said: ‘This is fascinating research. A challenge for politicians and a pause for thought for anyone who wants to engage with them.

‘Social media has broken down barriers and removed some of the mystery surrounding the nature of our ‘them’ and ‘us’ politics. But the role of an MP has also become ambiguous. What some MPs say has driven engagement with constituents hasn’t resulted in better debate and is eroding traditional media channels. MPs are also making a distinction between how they engage with the public and how they engage with lobbyists, which is part of ethical lobbying practice.’

While MPs consider on balance that social media has had negative impact on politics, they recognise that it is around twice as important as securing editorial coverage in communicating with constituents (64% vs. 35%). Social media is considered only marginally less important as having face to face meetings with constituents (64% vs 70%). The importance of social media for constituent engagement increases among younger MPs with three quarters (74%) of MPs born since 1970 saying social media is an important communication channel for engaging with constituents compared to half (49%) of those born in the middle decade of the last century (1950-1959).

Labour MPs are most likely to consider social media as important to engagement compared with Conservative MPs (75% vs 57%). When it comes to reaching stakeholders working in policy or the media, MPs consider activities in parliament, such as parliamentary debates and APPG sessions as significantly more important (60%) opposed to less than half that figure (25%) choosing social media.

This research was commissioned by Vuelio to understand the changing relationship between MPs, the press, editorial and social media. ComRes surveyed 137 MPs (51 Conservative, 67 Labour, nine SNP and 10 others) using a combination of paper and online surveys. The survey was conducted between 11 June and 12 August 2019. Data have been weighted by party and region to be representative of the House of Commons.

Clarity in Confusion

How can you navigate the current political landscape?

Politics is changing by the second, making it harder to keep up with the issues that affect you and your clients. And whether you work in public affairs or PR, everything that’s happening in Westminster will affect your role and your ability to succeed in communications.

It’s not just the impact on our industry and clients, daily front-page announcements are making it more challenging to understand how to influence in a world of constant change. That’s why we are delighted to announce our next webinar: Clarity in Confusion, tomorrow, Tuesday 10 September 2019 at 10:30 am

Sign up here and if you can’t join us live, we’ll send you the recording afterwards.

We have three panelists to guide us through the political turmoil: James Baker, PR and Public Affairs Associate at Brunswickwho advised Boris Johnson on his successful leadership campaign; Katie Roscoe, Head of UK Public Affairs – Helicopters and Civil at Airbus; and Alexander Tiley, former Press and Comms Officer to a Labour MEP, now working in public affairs.

Our guests will be discussing what’s happened up to this point to create the current confusion, how the political climate and Brexit is affecting policy-making decisions, what you should be prioritising and the importance of the Party Conference Season for your engagement.

Party Conferences are particularly useful to understand what’s happening in each party and reach the right people to help with your agenda. But if you have never been, or you are watching from afar, it helps to get the inside track from those in the know. Find out what sessions are the big ones, which guests are likely to make a splash and the tips and tricks to come out of each on top.

Don’t let Brexit, a new Government and parliamentary procedure swamp your role, get clarity in confusion with Vuelio.

Boris Johnson longest week

A week is a long time in politics…

Since parliament returned from summer recess on Tuesday, we have witnessed one of the most hostile weeks in UK political history. Amidst the rumbling constitutional crisis, Boris Johnson’s brother Jo decided to resign as a Cabinet minister and MP, citing the ‘unresolvable tension between family loyalty and the national interest’. If we are only weeks away from a general election, this is surely a gift to opposition parties who can now point, not just to an utterly divided country and Conservative party, but a Johnson family which has also found Brexit irreconcilable.

The Prime Minister’s warning that any Conservative MPs who rebelled this week in a key vote to delay the UK’s exit date from the EU and remove the threat of no-deal, was followed through. It meant 21 Conservative rebels immediately had the party whip withdrawn and were removed from Tory WhatsApp groups with lightning speed.

Political observers and opposition MPs alike are shocked that former Cabinet ministers like Philip Hammond, Greg Clark, Rory Stewart and Justine Greening now find themselves outside their party and unable to contest the next election as Conservative candidates. Even Conservative party grandees like the Father of the House Ken Clarke and Sir Nicholas Soames, grandson of Winston Churchill, are among the group now sitting as Independents.

Many of them have taken the opportunity to announce they will not be standing again at the general election, along with others like Nick Hurd, Dame Caroline Spelman and Claire Perry. Some, like Rory Stewart, have indicated their intentions to re-stand as independents. This might present a wider opportunity for deals to be done with opposition parties to ensure the biggest block of anti no-deal MPs is returned in the next parliament.

A set piece speech by the PM in West Yorkshire on Thursday to formally launch the police recruitment drive for 20,000 new officers, was largely overshadowed by his brother’s resignation and by criticism that he shouldn’t have used a large group of police recruits as a backdrop, given he also covered the Brexit crisis and his desire to hold an early general election.

As it stands, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act requires a two thirds majority of MPs (434) to support an early election and in the vote this week, while it was the only division that the Government won, (by 298 votes to 56) it failed to secure the two thirds majority. A second vote has been tabled for Monday 9 September, but opposition party leaders are holding firm and will continue to abstain on this, all but preventing an October election and keeping Boris Johnson in office to try to negotiate a more acceptable EU exit deal. Whether he will adhere to the new law, if passed by parliament, and request an extension remains to be seen but he insists he ‘would rather die in a ditch’ than request one.

This week also saw Chancellor Sajid Javid’s Spending Round, which has perhaps been lost amidst the constitutional crisis and Government defeats, but it did give the Chancellor the opportunity to confirm a 4.1% increase in day to-day spending, equating to an additional £13.8bn for education, the NHS and the police. Javid said the Spending Round was part of the Government’s strategy: ‘turning the page on austerity and beginning a new decade of renewal’.

Finally, the PM’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings continues to come under fire for his actions, including firing the Chancellor’s Special Adviser without prior warning and asking police to escort her out of Downing Street. His actions, as well as his tone to MPs and staff, has provoked attacks from Tory backbencher Sir Roger Gale who referred to him as ‘an unelected, foul-mouthed oaf’. Former Conservative Minister Margot James also criticised the PM for Cummings’ behaviour in a PMQ on Wednesday, which received sustained applause from opposition MPs. She said: ‘The great lady, whom I am sure you and I both revere, Mr Speaker, once said, “Advisers advise, Ministers decide.” Can I ask the Prime Minister to bear that statement closely in mind in relation to his own chief adviser, Dominic Cummings?’

The Prime Minister’s response focused on the Government’s Brexit policy: ‘As for the excellent question that my hon. Friend asked, be in no doubt that we are deciding on a policy to take this country forward, not backwards, as the Leader of the Opposition would do’.

Next week will surely provide further turmoil but it remains to be seen if we will be any closer to knowing the date of the general election after another week of parliament. Perhaps the party conference season will now carry on largely as planned and not be disrupted too much due to purdah and media reporting restrictions that will come into force once a campaign commences.

Boris Johnson no 10

Prime Minister Boris Johnson – the first 28 days

With Parliament back after summer recess and the threat of a general election now a likely option to break the Brexit deadlock, there’s never been a more important time to understand the political landscape and what it means for organisations across the UK. What can public affairs and external communications professionals learn from the first 28 days of Boris Johnson’s premiership?

The current prime minister’s ambitions for his Government have been revealed in a number of policy announcements he’s made since taking office, all of which received media scrutiny from traditional and online sources. In this briefing, Vuelio highlights key observations that provide essential insight into where he may face opposition progressing his agenda and where the battlegrounds lie, if, or when, a general election is called.

Download the analysis here

 

 

Brexit

Breaking the Brexit deadlock: what will happen next?

Certainty is the word used most frequently in the current political stalemate, as the 31 October date for the UK to leave the EU fast approaches.

Leavers have a spring in their step now, certain we will be out of the EU by November. Remainers are equally certain they will do whatever it takes to assert themselves once MPs return from recess; either voting to take a no-deal off the table by passing new legislation, extending article 50 or bringing down the Government through a vote of no confidence.

The meeting Jeremy Corbyn has called for this morning (Tuesday 27 August) with other party leaders and senior backbenchers, will be crucial for those that want to find a way forward and avoid a no-deal exit.

Committed Brexiteers take comfort from the clear stance Boris Johnson took during his leadership campaign. ‘Kick the can again and we kick the bucket’, he said at his campaign launch in June, referring to the electoral prospects of the Conservative party if yet another Brexit delay and Article 50 extension is required.

The PM and his team have also ensured the summer recess is not completely dominated by Brexit and instead made big policy announcements on police, prisons, the NHS, education funding and transport, as well as trips to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland followed by Berlin, Paris and the G7 summit in Biarritz. These trips show the importance of maintaining the union of UK nations (Johnson wants to be known as ‘minister for the Union’) and seek to establish Mr Johnson on the world stage too.

While very costly in terms of public spending, this deluge of domestic policy announcements is crucial to hammer home the message that Johnson’s Government is delivering useful domestic policy changes that will have an impact on everyday lives, separate to the Brexit issue. Theresa May’s Government was largely unable to achieve anything substantial.

Johnson said on the steps of Downing Street as he took office on 24 July that he must deliver domestically: ‘My job is to make your streets safer…. My job is to make sure you don’t have to wait three weeks to see your GP’.

But in Johnson’s own party, a growing band of committed Remainers on the Conservative backbenches seem certain that they still have the parliamentary tools to prevent no-deal. Former Chancellor Philip Hammond, said to be the nominal leader of this group, tweeted on 13 August that though he voted three times to deliver Brexit, there is no mandate for a no-deal exit, as it is ‘a far cry from the highly optimistic vision presented by the Leave campaign’.

No confidence?
Will Labour, as the official opposition party, table a Motion of No Confidence in Johnson’s Government on the first sitting day after recess, Tuesday 3 September, as has been heavily hinted? If so, this could take place as early as 4 September.

The outcome of such a vote is far from certain. It hinges on many factors, not least if all opposition MPs across the House are prepared to vote for it. The previous no confidence vote tabled by Jeremy Corbyn, in Theresa May’s Government on 16 January, was supported by 306 MPs with 325 opposing it. On that occasion 314 Conservatives, (which excludes two ‘tellers’ and the Deputy Speaker, Dame Eleanor Laing) all 10 DUP MPs and Independent MP Lady Hermon, supported the Government.

Let us not forget the numbers in the House of Commons are about as finely balanced as they can be for a Government with a majority of one (assuming the DUP votes with the Conservatives as per the confidence and supply agreement). So, with 308 eligible Conservatives currently able to vote plus 10 DUP MPs we have 318 MPs. Several more MPs are also likely to back the Government in a crunch vote.

All calculations seem to come down crucially to how many, if any, Conservatives will vote against their own Government knowing it will quite possibly trigger an early general election in which they couldn’t then stand as a Conservative candidate.

In the previous Confidence vote, two Independent MPs abstained. How many will do so next time? Will former Labour MP Jared O’Mara (now an Independent) who’s said he will resign when parliament returns, have left the Commons by then? Just one vote, as we’ve seen in several recent Commons divisions, is crucial and could be the difference between victory and defeat.

Caretaker Government
If the Government is defeated in a Confidence vote, will opposition MPs and Conservative rebels use the following 14 days to agree on an alternative PM to lead a short-term caretaker Government?

As leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn thinks it should be him but if he struggles to get the support of a majority of MPs, will they then gravitate to someone who can? Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman have been suggested as longest serving male and female MPs. It could equally be another respected MP such as David Lidington, Hilary Benn or Yvette Cooper.

General election
There is a clear feeling that an early general election is approaching, perhaps even taking place on or before 31 October. I understand that the new PM would prefer to wait until Spring 2020 but recognises that the option of a longer honeymoon might now be denied him by MPs.

With so many unknowns, public affairs professionals need clarity in confusion. Vuelio has an in-house political team and provides all the tools you need to understand the latest issues and policy announcements, and how they’re going to specifically affect you and your clients. Find out more

For the latest news, follow @Vuelio_Politics on Twitter.

Boris Johnson

What does a new Government mean for stakeholder engagement?

The dust is still settling on Prime Minister Johnson’s new cabinet appointments, which he made as soon as he came into power with a ferocity rarely seen. For those working in external affairs, keeping track of the resignations, sackings and appointments was only just the beginning, as they now find themselves in a period of stakeholder mapping, research and analysis, leading to an autumn of engagement activity with new decision makers and their teams.

A new agenda and leadership can be daunting to even the most seasoned external affairs team. Stakeholder mapping is time intensive and measuring opportunity and risk can be complex, whether it is the new appointment’s relationship with your organisation, stance on policy issues or a general lack of access.

For those organisations seeking to enter political stakeholder engagement for the first time, the new Government could be considered a blessing, but it is often difficult to know where to start. When the stage is reset, it creates space for new voices to be heard but mobilising resource to take advantage of this can be a huge hurdle.

Whether experienced or taking the leap into influencing for the first time, reviewing your processes for managing and maintaining key influential relationships is now vital. A pivotal time of change offers opportunity that should not be held back by inefficiency.

At Vuelio, we work with teams of all sizes and varying levels of experience, and they all have a single shared objective: managing effective stakeholder relationships in an increasingly volatile external environment. We help build the foundations of your external affairs structure through software that provides not only the intelligence you need, but also a selection of tools that let you map stakeholders live, as the agenda changes.

Delivering a stakeholder engagement strategy in uncertain times requires agility and belief. Working with tools such as Vuelio Stakeholder Relationship Management gives you a broad set of reports and analytics at your fingertips, that can support the decision to change direction or detail the health of any relationship. This allows you to continue to lead your organisation through the unknown and achieve your goals.

priti patel

Political Headlines – Patel tipped for Home Secretary

Today’s political headlines includes Priti Patel is tipped to become Home Secretary, Hunt resists demotion and rejects role of Defence Secretary and Johnson is to set out his domestic agenda. 

Patel tipped for Home Secretary
The Times claims that Boris Johnson is to promote Priti Patel to the post of Home Secretary today, following his victory in the Conservative leadership contest and his installation as Prime Minister today. Aides have said that Johnson wants to create a ‘cabinet for modern Britain’, with more women as full members and a record number of non-white MPs in his wider team. The paper claims that Sajid Javid faces competition from Liz Truss for the role of Chancellor and expects Rishi Sunak to join the Cabinet. Other MPs likely to be promoted include Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden, Tracey Crouch and Robert Jenrick. Johnson has already made Mark Spencer his chief whip and Sky executive Andrew Griffith his chief business adviser.


Hunt resists demotion
According to The Sun, Boris Johnson yesterday offered his leadership rival Jeremy Hunt the role of Defence Secretary, only for Hunt to reject it, viewing it as a demotion from Foreign Secretary. He has apparently told Johnson that he wants to retain his current role and if Johnson wants to move him, he will have to sack him. The paper suggests that Johnson wants to make Penny Mordaunt the new Foreign Secretary.

Johnson to set out domestic agenda
The Daily Mail reports that Boris Johnson will use his speech outside Downing Street this afternoon to set out his domestic agenda. Yesterday he told the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs he would ‘put a stop’ to prosecutions of troops involved in the Troubles in Northern Ireland, while he used his speech after being elected to promise more police, full-fibre broadband to every home, better infrastructure and better education.

Johnson to meet Trump three times in next 100 days
According to The Daily Telegraph, Boris Johnson will meet Donald Trump three times before the UK leaves the EU in 100 days, with a visit to the USA expected in August, and further meetings at the G7 later that month and at the UN General Assembly in September, in an attempt to strengthen the ‘special referendum’. Yesterday Trump said of Boris, ‘They call him Britain Trump. And people are saying that’s a good thing. They like me over there.’

Watson admits making ‘real mistake’ by believing paedophile ring allegations
The Times says that Labour deputy leader Tom Watson has admitted making ‘a real mistake’ by believing Carl Beech, convicted of lying about a Westminster paedophile ring. Harvey Proctor, one of those falsely accused by Beech, has called on Watson to disclose details of his contact with Beech to a parliamentary select committee.

Swinson vows to vote against Brexit even if it wins second referendum
The Daily Telegraph says that Jo Swinson, the new Liberal Democrat leader, has vowed to vote against Brexit, even if it wins a second referendum. She said such a vote wouldn’t ‘change my fundamental beliefs’ and she had been elected on a ‘firm manifesto pledge to fight for Scotland’s place in the UK and the UK’s place in the EU’.

Government going ahead with bottle and can deposit scheme
The Sun says that the Government is going ahead with plans for a deposit on cans and glass or plastic bottles, to be set at 10p or 20p, and which will be refundable via ‘reverse vending machines’. The plans were unveiled by Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Michael Gove, who also said that he wanted to standardise council’s recycling schemes.

Mann made antisemitism adviser
The Daily Telegraph reports that one of Theresa May’s last actions as leader was to appoint the Labour MP John Mann as an advisor on antisemitism to the Government. Mann warned that ‘if we stay silent on anti-Semitism, we allow cowardice and bigotry to speak its own repulsive language. I will endeavour to give a clarion call to government on prejudice and discrimination’.

Stay up to date with Vuelio Political Services.  

jo swinson political headlines

Political Headlines – Watson urged to apologise after false allegations

Today’s political headlines includes Labour deputy leader Tom Watson urged to apologise after false allegations, Swinson elected as Lib Dem leader and Johnson to announce new domestic policies if elected. 

Watson urged to apologise after VIP paedophile ring accuser convicted of lying
The Times says that Labour deputy leader Tom Watson is being urged to apologise after the paedophile Carl Beech was convicted of making false allegations about being abused by a ring of VIPs, including former Home Secretary Leon Brittan. Watson wrote that it was ‘a travesty’ that Brittan ‘will never be asked the truth’, while the son of another accused politician, Greville Janner, claimed that Watson had politicised the police investigation for ‘personal political advancement’.

Swinson elected as Lib Dem leader
The Guardian reports that Jo Swinson has been elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, winning almost two-thirds of the vote. In her acceptance speech, she said that ‘liberalism is alive and thriving, in the face of nationalism, populism, the catastrophe of Brexit’, adding that it was ‘the time for working together, not the time for tribalism’. The Times adds Justice Secretary David Gauke has warned that a no-deal Brexit will ‘play into the hands’ of the Lib Dems, saying Swinson ‘will be an energetic and passionate advocate’.

Johnson to announce new domestic policies if he’s elected today
The Sun claims that Boris Johnson will immediately ‘start to unveil a blitzkrieg of domestic plans’ if he is elected as Tory leader today. He will announce a state-backed social care insurance scheme, new rules and funding to end regional imbalances in school funding and a ‘Brexit dividend’ for the regions. The Daily Telegraph says that Johnson will lift Hammond’s controls on public spending, pausing deficit reduction to fund tax breaks for those earning under £80,000.

May and Hancock in argument over ‘sin taxes’
According to the Financial Times, Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock tried to block the publication of a new green paper promising to end smoking by 2030 and to ban the sale of energy drinks to children, but was over-ruled by Theresa May. He is a supporter of Boris Johnson, who has opposed so-called ‘sin taxes’.

Ministers confirm they’ll resign rather than serve under Johnson
The Guardian reports that International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has joined David Gauke and Philip Hammond in confirming that he will resign rather than serve under Boris Johnson, while Foreign Office Minister Sir Alan Duncan resigned to request an emergency debate to test whether Johnson could command a majority, but this was rejected by the Speaker. The Times says Johnson has met Stewart, Gauke and Hammond as part of a ‘charm offensive’, amid concerns they will be ‘nightmare’ backbenchers.

Three former Prime Ministers criticise Johnson over no-deal Brexit plans
The Daily Mirror leads with the news that three former Prime Ministers – Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Sir John Major – have criticised Boris Johnson over his no-deal Brexit plans, with Brown claiming that it would be the world’s largest ‘self-inflicted wound’ and Major saying that Johnson would face ‘uncompromising opposition’.

Labour steps up efforts to combat antisemitism
The Guardian says that Labour is increasing its efforts to tackle antisemitism, with the shadow cabinet backing new plans from Jeremy Corbyn to speed up the expulsion of antisemites from the party. A new rule will see members who have committed the most serious offences referred to a new panel with the power to immediately expel them.

Iran accused of ‘state piracy’ by Hunt
The Daily Mail reports that Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt yesterday accused Iran of ‘state piracy’ over its seizure of a British tanker, saying that the UK would ‘seek to put together a European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of both crew and cargo in this vital region’.

Stay up to date with Vuelio Political Services.  

political headlines philip hammond

Political Headlines – Ministers to disrupt Johnson by resigning

Today’s political headlines includes senior ministers plans to disrupt Johnson by resigning, Corbyn support amongst Labour members falls and the government considers a carbon charge on air tickets. 

Ministers to disrupt Johnson by resigning
The Guardian claims that Boris Johnson’s entry into Downing Street is to be disrupted by ‘carefully timed resignations’ by senior ministers. Philip Hammond and David Gauke have confirmed that they will be stepping down on Wednesday, with others, such as Rory Stewart, potentially following. Hammond told The Andrew Marr show at the weekend that ‘I’m sure I’m not going to be sacked, because I’m going to resign before we get to that point’.

Johnson calls on UK to rediscover ‘sense of mission’
Writing in The Daily Telegraph Boris Johnson says that the UK can leave the EU with a deal by 31 October be rediscovering its ‘sense of mission’, saying that if man could get to the moon fifty years ago ‘we certainly have the technology’ to tackle the Irish border issue, claiming that checks could be conducted away from the border.

Corbyn support amongst Labour members falls
A poll by YouGov for The Times finds that Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity with Labour members has fallen by 24 points since March last year, with 43% of members now saying that is doing a bad job. Over half are dissatisfied with how he has handled Brexit, while one in four want him to quit immediately. The Guardian reports that Corbyn has launched an educational webpage to help tackle antisemitism in the party.

Over 770,000 denied state support since Government promised action on social care
The Daily Mail claims that over 770,000 elderly people have been denied state support since the Government promised to reform the social care system in March 2017, with 66,684 people dying while waiting for care over the period according to NHS Digital figures, analysed by Age UK, which called for ‘certainty and stability’.

Defence minister says navy is too small after Iran seizes tanker
The Times says that defence minister Tobias Ellwood has admitted that the Royal Navy is ‘too small’ to fulfil a global role, following the seizure by the Iranians of the British tanker Stena Impero in the Gulf despite warnings from HMS Montrose. He said that continuing to play ‘an influential role’ internationally would ‘require further funding’.

Duncan Smith holds out for senior Cabinet role as Johnson considers demoting Hunt
According to The Sun, Iain Duncan Smith has told friends he wouldn’t accept a role as party chairman under Boris Johnson as he wants a more senior role. The paper also says that Johnson’s allies believe he will sack Jeremy Hunt as Foreign Secretary if he wins the leadership by a large number, having become infuriated by Hunt’s personal attacks, and will give him a more junior role such as Business Secretary.

Government considers carbon charge on air tickets
The Times claims that the Government is considering adding a carbon charge to the price of air tickets automatically, on an ‘opt-out’ basis, with the possibility of extending this to trains, buses and ferries. This would increase the cost of a London to New York flight by just under £30, and to Madrid by about £5.

MPs call for time limit on prosecution of soldiers
The Guardian carries details of a House of Commons Defence Committee report which recommends the introduction of a 10-year ‘qualified statute of limitations’ to protect military veterans and soldiers from prosecution, and suggest that the Human Rights Act could be amended to provide further protection.

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