One month on from the 2024 UK General Election: What have we learned?

Written by Helen Stott and Michael Kane.

It was nearly a month ago that the United Kingdom voted to deliver Labour to their first electoral majority since 2005, leaving the Conservatives with a measly 121 seats.

The democratic repercussions of this result are potentially seismic, with Labour propelled to over 400 seats on a 33.7% share of the UK wide vote. Yet, research from the IPPR showed that only 52.4% of adults voted. The Conservatives and Labour – two parties who have come to dominate UK politics over the last 100 years – only received just over 55% of the vote share combined.

How have the parties responded to this? What have we learned one month on from the General Election?

Labour’s first few days: the formation of the Government

The day after Labour achieved its landslide victory, Starmer’s senior team will have been well aware of the need to hit the ground running. There was no time to waste on last minute reshuffles, so Starmer’s Government for the most part mirrors the makeup of his Shadow Cabinet when they were Opposition. There are a few notable exceptions, however. Starmer was forced to find alternatives when former Shadow Cabinet members Thangham Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth both lost their seats. More surprisingly, Emily Thornberry was snubbed for Attorney General after shadowing the role for over three years. Starmer instead appointed Lord Hermer, who has more extensive legal experience and, interestingly, was a key signatory of a letter which espoused that Israel must be guided by international law. This perhaps signals that Starmer has heard the concerns of voters who rejected Labour over its position on Israel, and is prepared to shift to a more critical stance.

Labour set their priorities and agenda

Later in the month, Labour used the King’s Speech to set out their immediate priorities for Government, launching a jam-packed legislative agenda, with almost 40 new Bills introduced. The speech focused on Labour’s economic growth mission, with measures announced to reform planning laws, renationalise railways, and create a new publicly-owned clean energy company in Great British Energy.

However, Starmer has faced his first rebellion, as seven Labour MPs broke the party whip to vote for an SNP tabled amendment calling to end the two-child benefit cap. There had been speculation that the Government would compromise on this due to external pressure, but instead Starmer responded by suspending the rebels – including former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. These strong arm tactics send a clear message to the new intake of MPs that Starmer expects absolute loyalty, but will his refusal to abolish this much derided policy backfire?

The Labour leadership have signalled that they would be open to ending the two-child limit in the future, but at the moment they are standing firm that public finances are not in the place for immediate action. Backbench MPs will be appeased by Starmer’s commitment to setting up a child poverty task force, but if this does not start delivering change soon, we may see more significant rebellions in future.

Throughout Labour’s first few weeks in Government, senior Cabinet members have had their own individual moments in the sun to help Labour set the policy and political agenda in their favour. On 11 July, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting announced an investigation into the NHS, also resuming talks with junior doctors regarding industrial action.

Minister for Women and Equalities Bridget Phillipson continued this reset sentiment as she conducted a question and answer session on 16 July, noting that her priority was to ‘reset the relationship between the Department and the education sector.’ Phillipson also launched a curriculum and assessment review on 19 July. On 22 July, testament to its importance to Labour’s agenda, Starmer himself spoke on Labour’s plans to establish Skills England and reform the ‘broken’ skills system, which he argued had failed young people. A day later, and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall reasserted the focus on employment and training as she unveiled the Government’s plans to tackle economic inactivity among young people.

In a similar vein, earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave a statement to the Commons, where she said public finances were in an even worse state than they had believed prior to the election. Reeves claims that Labour have inherited a ‘black hole’ of £22bn of unfunded spending promises, announcing the cancellation of various infrastructure projects committed to by the previous Government, and means testing the pensioners’ winter fuel payment in order to fill the gap. Part of the ‘black hole’ Reeves mentioned is from the cost of giving public sector workers a 5.5% pay rise – something which the previous Government avoided doing. Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt strongly repudiated Reeves’ claims and accused her of ‘laying the ground for tax rises’.

Reeves has since confirmed tax rises will be announced as part of October’s Budget, although she reaffirmed that Labour would stick to its manifesto promise not to hike national insurance, VAT, or income tax. Whether tax hikes will be accompanied by further spending cuts remains to be seen.

Is Vaughan Gething’s resignation Keir Starmer’s first hiccup as Prime Minister?

With the drama of the General Election, attention had been pulled away from devolved politics. Then Vaughan Gething announced he will be stepping down as First Minister of Wales after just 78 days in office. Gething’s premiership was plagued by scandal from the very beginning, as he faced questions over his election campaign donations, and the sacking of ministers over leaked text conversations. This led Plaid Cymru to pull out of their cooperation agreement with Welsh Labour, and Gething was forced to resign after facing a no confidence vote and numerous cabinet resignations.

Cabinet Secretary for Health Eluned Morgan looks set to become the next First Minister, as she was elected unopposed as Welsh Labour’s first female leader. Writing for Labourlist, former Welsh Cabinet Minister Lee Waters said there needed to be ‘honest debate’ about the future of Welsh Labour, cautioning that it could go the same way as Scottish Labour in the 2010s. Waters also pointed out that while First Past the Post served Labour very well during the most recent Westminster elections, the Welsh Parliament will be moving to a new proportional system in 2026, which may leave Welsh Labour in trouble if their polling doesn’t go up.

For Starmer, this debacle over the Welsh leadership may draw an unwelcome comparison to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s struggles with the devolved Governments upon the establishment of Holyrood and Senedd in the 1990s. Blair had famously struggled initially to get his preferred candidate as either Welsh or Scottish First Minister. Whether the Welsh Government proves to be a hiccup for Starmer is yet to be seen.

Conservative leadership race begins in a surprisingly low key fashion

Conservative leadership battles are often seismic in both their political significance and their domination of political debate. Testament to this: the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in 1990; John Major standing down, only recapture the leadership against John Redwood in 1995; and David Cameron’s ‘no notes’ victory against then favourite David Davis. Yet, the current leadership contest seems far removed from previous Conservative leadership battles. Perhaps this is a reflection of the Conservatives’ sidelined position against a Labour Government, who control the Commons so emphatically.

As we stand, the Conservatives will continue with ousted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as the Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) until their new leader is elected on the 2 November. Nominations were formally declared earlier this week for Tom Tugendhat; Mel Stride; James Cleverly; Kemi Badenoch; Robert Jenrick; and Priti Patel (read more about the leadership candidates and their backgrounds here).

This should be a significant Conservative leadership race, with the winner required to guide the party through a potentially fragile five years, squeezed from the left (the Liberal Democrats) and the right (Reform UK). The Conservatives must also negotiate their identity in the face of a post-Brexit UK, as the party has not won an outright majority in the Commons since the 1992 General Election without a major electoral promise on Europe. While this observation may be unwelcome to some it signifies the wider identity crisis that the future leader must confront and address to unite the party and challenge Labour at the next election.

What to expect in the months ahead

As Parliament heads into recess, the Government will be looking to prepare as much as possible for what will inevitably be a packed Parliamentary schedule in Autumn. Parliament will return in September for a brief session before adjourning again for party conference season. We can expect the mood at the Labour party conference to be triumphant, although the leadership may also face pushback on the two-child benefit from a disgruntled membership.

Meanwhile, at the Conservative party conference, there will be a debate between the four remaining leadership candidates – a key moment in determining the future of the party.

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