Northern Rock: The 2024 local elections

Towards the end of 2004, the North East of England voted to reject plans to give the region an elected chamber of 25 representatives. To be more blunt, New Labour’s proposal was completely quashed with 77% of voters rejecting it. This spurred then Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott to comedically hide away from the main vote count in Sunderland.

The referendum’s impact went beyond the borders of County Durham and Northumberland as the emphatic result led to similar proposed referenda proposed in the North West and Yorkshire and Humber being scrapped.

Nonetheless, 20 years on perhaps the political appetite has changed. The most recent set of local elections represented an interesting marking point for northern devolution. It marked the third Tees Valley Mayoral election and the consolidation of the existing North of Tyne Mayoralty into a new North East Mayoralty. This, coupled with the first election of a Mayor for York and North Yorkshire, could indicate that, in some sense, Prescott’s personal mission for northern political devolution was achieved.

The North East perhaps represents the archetypal example of where political devolution is needed. The region lags massively behind its southern counterparts in terms of wages, living standards, education outcomes, health outcomes, and macro economic output – all of which have lasting impact on an individual’s well being. Moreover, a recent report by the IPPR found the North East has the lowest overall and average level of wealth in the country.

Logic dictates that devolving political power to the North will bring economic change through establishing centres of powers which will alleviate economic inequalities. This logic has been furthered by Labour Leader Keir Starmer in his discourse around his proposed Take Back Control Bill.

However, while the 2024 Local Elections may have revealed much in terms of progress towards this mission, it also illustrated the gaps and challenges that still face such political change, some of which may be similar in character to those present in the 2004 referendum.

Houchen’s cult of personality

Moving into the local elections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s political fate seemingly partly rested on the Tees Valley mayoral election, but this contest is significant for reasons beyond national party politics.

Ben Houchen was re-elected in spite of a 16.5% swing to Labour in the election, with commentators noting that Houchen bucked the trend of Conservative casualties across the country. Houchen’s re-election perhaps cements his standing as Mayor, a position he has held since 2017 as he enters his third term.

Such longevity has allowed Houchen to establish his own cult of personality and shape the Tees Valley mayoralty in his image, and this name recognition most definitely helped him in his reelection. Moreover, Houchen’s synonymity with the Tees Valley Combined Authority may lead to similar comparisons to prior London Mayors, such as Sadiq Khan, Ken Livingstone, and Boris Johnson, who also cemented their personal and political attachment with the role.

This has allowed Houchen to add gravitas to the mayoralty and emphasise his own policy priorities. For instance, despite the controversy surrounding Teesworks, Houchen has successfully ploughed public money into Teesside Airport to reacquire and expand it. His re-election will also allow him to pursue his promise of £1 bus fares for under-21s.

Teesside Airport and the action on bus fares encapsulate archetypal examples of devolution in action in the North. This and Houchen’s re-election may suggest where devolution has worked through the cultivation of local policy priorities so the north is not so dependent on national policy movements.

The first steps for the North East Combined Authority

As mentioned prior, the recent local elections also amounted to the first mayoralty election for the new North East Combined Authority. This combined the existing North East Combined Authority and North of Tyne Combined Authority 20 years on from the referendum and nearly 40 years after Tyne and Wear County Council was abolished.

The challenge is huge, with the region lagging behind the South of England in all sorts of life outcome metrics. Despite this, if the wider North East region is to fully grapple issues such as the digital and net zero transition then this is also a beacon of opportunity, with Newcastle representing one of the largest urban centres in the North of England and the wider region hosting a series of large industries who will play a vital role.

It is on Labour’s Kim McGuiness to grapple this challenge after she beat the previous North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Discroll in a semi-competitive election. Discroll was removed from the Labour selection process for the North East Mayor after the central party detailed that they just wanted to secure ‘the highest quality candidates’ – a move criticised by Unite, Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram. Driscoll then stood as an Independent and received 28% of the vote. Discroll’s support sees a parallel to Houchen as his experience of devolution allowed him to partly move beyond party political dogmas and cleavages through cultivating his own political brand. This may speak to the success of existing devolution through allowing the North East to develop its own body politic not contingent on Westminster.

Nonetheless, McGuiness’ victory on 41.3% only represents the start of her journey. The question remains whether she will fully overcome the challenge that Discroll encapsulated: the idea that the Labour Party under Keir Starmer has become too far removed from Corbynism. This is a challenge worsened by McGuinness’ characterisation as a safe pair of hands and her perceived association with Starmerism.

If McGuiness is to succeed, she may do well to carve her own identity and priorities in the spirit of devolution and to remedy the economic inequalities felt in the North. Her innovative ideas to implement North East Careers Hubs in villages, towns, and cities, and free travel for those in education and training may be some means of cementing herself as Houchen has done, while showing that devolution can work for everyone.

Mystery man David Skaith

The recent local elections represented the first Mayoral Election for the new Mayor of York and North Yorkshire, with Labour’s David Skaith winning on 35% of the vote, while the Conservative candidate received 27% and the Liberal Democrat candidate 16%.

Beyond his prior experience of being a small business owner in York, relatively little is known about Skaith specifically. This may be due to the little media attention on this contest with the Westminster bubble more focused on the implications of West Midlands and Tees Valley for Sunak, with few putting their money on Skaith to win in Sunak’s backyard. Given the broken-up nature of the vote, with Skaith winning on only 35%, his first challenge may be out of electoral necessity as he will have to quickly cement himself publicly.

Skaith’s challenge is made harder by the unique composition of the York and North Yorkshire mayoralty. Specifically, the urban-rural divide is stark between the large urban areas of Harrogate and York and the contrasting rolling green hills and farms and smaller towns of Richmond, Leyburn, Thirsk, Northallerton, and Bedale further north. This is compounded by Skaith was carried to victory through 54% of the vote in the York region but only receiving 28% in the more rural North Yorkshire region. Skaith has to ensure that political and economic devolution works for both of these communities, which may make addressing significant issues, such as the green and digital transition, infinitely more tricky to navigate.

Fragile devolution?

Upon the release of the 2004 referendum result, John Tomeney, chairman of the Yes 4 The North East, suggested to The Guardian that the result spoke to something bigger than a regional parliament. He indicated that it represented the ‘growing breakdown in the belief that political institutions can affect people’s lives for the better.’

That referendum and comment came only 20 years ago. Therefore, it is worth remembering that devolution through Combined Authorities and Mayors is fragile and perhaps even embryonic, with the idea only rising in prominence over the last 15 years. This is best exemplified by the minnow levels of turnout, with 29% in the York and North Yorkshire contest, 30% in the Tees Valley, and 31% in the North East election. While this may not be particularly significant in the grand scheme of the national turnout, it still suggests there is wider work to be done to imprint devolution permanently.

In this regard, while the 2024 local elections are a marking point for northern devolution, they are also a starting point. Therefore, the best means to cement northern devolution might be for the current crop of metro mayors to deliver local policy priorities on the range of cross-cutting issues facing the region to guard against the very breakdown that John Tomeney warned of.

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